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Monday September 13, 2010 - 03:29:33 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 13-Sep-2010 - 0328GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities recovered last week after eased worries over European debt concern and good US JObless Claim numbers. The Dow (10462.77) was up 0.14% and the S&P 500 (1109.55) was up 0.46%. The Dow may move up towards 10700-50 this week.

The Asian Equities are trading higher today followed by better than expected Chinese data release last Saturday and weaker Yen. The Nikkei (9331.22, up 1.00%) may see some strong upmove if it manages to close above 9350 this week and the Shanghai (2671.44, up 0.31%) may continue to be ranged in the 2600-700 region for some more time. The Indian Equities surged on account of improved global economic outlook last week. The Sensex (18799.66) was up 3.17% and the Nifty (5640.05) was up 2.93%. The Sensex has broken above some important Resistances levels last week and it needs to be seen if it is able to hold on to its gains this week.


COMMODITIES
Crude (77.20) has risen sharply breaking above 76 following a shutdown of Enbridge's a pipeline that supplies oil to the US. The weaker dollar today is retaining the Crude price higher. Resistance is seen at 78. A strong break above it might increase the chances of a rise once again towards 80-82 in the coming days. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1245.50) has bounced back from Firday's low of 1236.50. However, a strong break above 1250-55 Resistance region will have to be seen for an upmove towards 1275-1300. While below 1250 there are good chances of seeing 1220 on the downside. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldma.shtml#ma


CURRENCIES
Overall, the Dollar Index (82.66) could be gearing up for an advance this week, building on last week's gains. The Euro (1.2796) has moved up today on better "risk-appetite" which is reflected in the rise in Equities worldwide. However, there is important Resistance overhead at 1.29. Dollar-Yen (84.11) has risen from a low of 83.34 last week and has a strong Support at 83.00 now, which might hold for some time, reducing the chances of a fall towards 80.

Similarly, Dollar-Swiss (1.0154) has strong Support at 1.0050 in the bigger picture, even though it has fallen a goodish bit from Friday's high of 1.0278. The Pound (1.5425) has been ranging sideways for some days now, and there may be equal chances of it rising as of falling this week.

The Aussie (0.9305) has been performing exceptionally well over the last few days. A final Resistance might be seen at 0.9350, which needs to be kept in mind.

In Asia, the Korean Won (1164.80) dipped to a low of 1157 today and is currently trading just near its 200-day MA at 1164.46. The USD-SGD (1.3389) is also trading weak, but has a crucial Support near 1.3360 on the Weekly Candles. If this breaks, then further losses may be seen.

To sum up, the Dollar is at a crucial Support against the A-Pac currencies in particular. This is the last chance for it to bounce. Else, the Asians could gain more strength going forward. Coming to Dollar-Rupee, 46.30-25 is a crucial Support that needs to be watched. It might hold. If it breaks, however, a further fall towards 45.50 would be possible.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 7 bps and 9 bps to quote at 0.58% and 2.83% respectively.


DATA TODAY
09:00 GMT EU July IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected 0.2%...Previous -0.1%


FRIDAY'S DATA
JP GDP QoQ (2nd Pre)
...Actual 0.4%...Previous 0.1%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/jpgdp.shtml

EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q1 '10
...Actual -24.4 bln...Previous EUR -25.4 bln

EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services
...Actual 10.9 bln...Previous EUR 3.3 bln

EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP
...Actual -1.1%...Previous -1.1%

Aug CA Labour Force
...Actual 35.8K...Previous -9.3K

 

 

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