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Monday September 13, 2010 - 10:01:29 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Risk On?

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


Risk On?

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 13 - At this hour it appears that the markets are trying out a "risk on" scenario. The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are stronger, equities are up are up and fixed income prices are lower. The markets seem to be responding to generally better than expected economic data released by China on Saturday. The U.S. economic calendar is light today but features  the key retail sales figures on Tuesday. The new Basel III higher capital rules for banks agreed to over the weekend seem to have been taken in stride by the markets 

The JPY continues to be a key focus of trade as forex intervention in the JPY may be growing closer.. As for Tokyo and the JPY, it is unlikely that any major policy decisions (intervention) would be made until after the DPJ party Congress tomorrow. It a close race, kingmaker Ozawa could replace Kan at that meeting as Prime Minister. The strong JPY has been an issue the Nikkei recently. There has been chatter recently that China has been buying JPY to diversify its forex reserves. 

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  In North America, no major data will be released.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:10
EUR 1.2706 1 JPY 106.95 48 JPY 129.22 -13
GBP 1.5352 -83 GBP 82.76 45 CHF 156.48 -17
CHF 1.0193 44 CHF 1.2951 57 CHF vs.    
JPY 84.17 37       JPY 82.58 1

The EURUSD is up on the day and the GBPUSD is up. The EURGBP cross is steady. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on the U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is down and EURCHF is higher. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is down and the EURJPY cross is firmer. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:10
CAD 1.0350 15 AUD 0.9266 33 Gold 1246 1.70
CNY 6.7700 -130 NZD 0.7279 29 WTI 76.57 2.29

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are higher vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is unlikely to tighten in September.The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed up. European bourses are better. U.S. equities have improved. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.84%, +5 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           20:10
NIK 9239 141 DAX 6215 -7 DJIA 10459 33
HSI 21257 90 FTSE 5502 7 S&P 1109 4
SSEC 2663 7 SMI 6468 0 NAS 2242 4
ASX 4560 -22       TSE 12055 52

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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