European Market Update: Markets react favorably to Basel III capital rules and Aug data out of China (TTN)
Monday, September 13, 2010
European Market Update: Markets react favorably to Basel III capital rules and Aug data out of China
****Economic Data**** - (EU) ECB: â‚¬1.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility v â‚¬620M; â‚¬49.1B parked in deposit facility v â‚¬40.5B prior - (FR) France July Current Account: -â‚¬2.2B V -â‚¬2.7B PRIOR - (SP) Spain July House Transactions y/y: 16.4% v 7.0% prior - (SZ) Swiss August Producer & Import Prices m/m: 0.1% v -0.1%e; y/y: 0.5% v 0.3%e - (NE) Netherlands July Trade Balance: â‚¬3.1B V â‚¬2.6B PRIOR - (CZ) Czech July Current Account (CZK): -32.5B V -13.0BE - (SW) Sweden August AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.8% V 4.8%E - (HK) Hong Kong Q2 Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.2% v 0.4% Prior; Producer Price Y/Y: 5.9% v 4.0% Prior
Fixed Income - (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total â‚¬5.5b in 5-yr and 40-yr bonds (as expected)
- Sells â‚¬3.5B in 3% 2015 BTPs; avg yield 2.69% v 2.63% prior, bid-to-cover 1.44x v 1.26x prior - Sells â‚¬2B in 5% 2040 BTPs; avg yield 4.80% v 5.08% prior, bid-to-cover 1.73x v 1.35x prior
Equities: - As of 6:05 AM EST, FTSE 100 +1.1% at 5,559, DAX +0.84% at 6,266 and CAC-40 +1.1% at 3,767.
- All European banks opened higher following the Basel III results which came in line with expectations. The leader was Credit Agricole trading at 5.6%. Deutsche Postbank [DPW.GE] slipped almost by 7% following confirmation that Deutsche Bank would use some proceeds of its rights issue of â‚¬9.8B to acquire the rest of the company - British food and retail group Associated British Food [ABF.UK] gave a positive outlook on its trading update and expected its adjusted operating profit to increase in H2. Company expected a growth of 6% in like-for-like sales for its discount clothing chain Primark. UK's Prudential gained almost 4% following M&A news. Press noted that a Chinese consortium led by Guangchangare was thought to be considering a stake in Prudential or making a bid for the Asian unit.
***SPEAKERS*** - (CH) China Premier Wen: Reiterates China to maintain "moderately loose" monetary policy; Reiterates to maintain continuity of macroeconomic policy controls; Global economy continues to face systemic risk; Risks related to local government financing have risen. - (CH) China Commerce Ministry Foreign Investment Dir-Gen Liu Yajun: Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) to surpass $100B this year v about $90B y/y - (CH) IMF's Zhu: Chinese economy not overhearing, overall economy is seeing soft landing; China is diversifying its forex reserves - (EU) ECB's Wellink: Banks need hundreds of billions after Basel III - (EU) ECB's Ordonez: Unveiling of Basel III removes uncertainty - (EU) ECB member Liikanen: New Basel III rules will not limit but rather support growth and recovery; Reforms are ambitious and will make the financial system more robust - (EU) EU's Rehn: The recovery is faster than projected during the Spring; notes signs of renewed tightening in lending to companies; Uncertainty related to fiscal consolidation could hurt confidence. - (FR) France Banking Federation: Basel III rules require a lot of effort from banks - (GE) German Banking Group (VOEB): Basel III transition period is not long enough and the rules ignore issues that are specific to Germany - (GE) Germany Engineering Group (VDMA) Doubles 2010 engineering production forecast to 6% from 3%, citing good new orders in recent months - (GR) Greece Fin Min Papaconstantinou: To lead a EU/ECB/IMF delegation to London this week so as to reassure investors Greece austerity is on track - FT - (IT) Italy PM Berlusconi: Certain that parliamentary majority will last; Industry Min to be appointed soon - IMF Strauss Kahn: World economy is not safe yet; Recovery may not create job growth
Currencies/Fixed Income: - European calendar was fairly quiet today the main event being the EU commission report. The commission raised the GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone to 1.7% from 0.9%. Germany's growth forecast almost tripled to 3.4% v 1.2% prior. EU commission noted strong growth in industrial exports was driving a faster than expected growth. Euro gained against the dollar sustained by the report but also by the strong China data and Basel III no-surprise agreement. - Cable recovered from its losses from Friday night following weak UK data and gained ground during the Asian session also buoyed by China's strong data. Pair was also sustained by M&A news from Prudential as a Chinese consortium was thought to be considering a stake in Prudential or making a bid for the Asian unit.
In the Papers-Geopolitical: - Over the weekend in Greece, about 20,000 people staged protests against the government's austerity measures in conjunction with Prime Minister Papandreou's annual address on the economy held in Thessaloniki. In addition, there are renewed fears of petrol shortages as thousands of drivers began new protest today against attempts by the government to liberalize their industry. - In Chinese press, the European Union and China have fundamentally agreed to develop their strategic partnerships. It is a possibility that there will be a bilateral pact during the China-EU summit in October. The feasibility of this will be addressed in an upcoming EU council meeting to discuss EU relations with strategic partners with special attention given to emerging countries in Asia. - Reflecting continuing economic difficulties, the Independent reported that more than half of Britain's largest firms plan to freeze salaries of top management for another year. Though referencing statements made by Deloitte did state that despite pay freezes large bonuses were still expected. Note that most executive were not given a pay increase in 2009.
**Observations*** - USD broadly weaker on rise in risk appetite following Aug data from China and B
***Looking Ahead*** - (CH) China Aug Actual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Y/Y: 25.0%e v 29.2% prior - (NO) Norway to Sell NOK6B in Treasury Bills - 08:00 (IC) Iceland Unemployment rate: No est v 7.5% prior - 8:30 (GE) Germany to Sell â‚¬5.0B in 6-Month BuBIlls - 9:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) to sell â‚¬8.5B in Bills - 10:00 (MX) Mexico July Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.8%e v 8.4% prior - 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchases Notes/Bonds - 14:00 (US) Aug Monthly Budget Statement: -$108.0Be v -$103.6B prior
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