Thursday April 7, 2005 - 15:04:49 GMT
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GVI Bi-Weekly Forex Survey Results
.In the latest bi-weekly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar improved against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2870 from 1.3158 two weeks earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (March 5 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2867.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) remained roughly neutral the EURUSD after the recent change in the spot rate to 45 from 48 previously. The GVI-Cumino index measures the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels as of the time when forecasts were made.
The USDJPY mean dollar forecast improved to 107.19 from 104.09 two weeks earlier. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 108.14. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index remained bearish the dollar from current levels from two weeks earlier. It was 36 from 39.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to rise modestly to $55.43 in 3 months from the current spot vs. the previous $54.06 estimate.
In special question, 19% of respondents said that they expected the EMU (euro) to break apart in 2005. 39% saw the common currency starting to fall apart after 2005 and 42% said it would never fall apart.
For complete survey results see:
CLICK TO VIEW
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months: (First day close 1.2875, average of responses 1.2870, Adjusted boundaries 1.3299-1.2501)
45% (48%) 34% 43% 23% (29% 47% 24%). Small changes, slightly bearish. 5% of neutrals moved to the bearish camp. Not surprisingly it is tracking well COT Eur positions since its inception.
USD JPY 3 months: (First day close 108.60, average of responses 107.19, Adjusted boundaries 112.99.-105.01)
34% (42%). 36% 60% 4% (22% 71% 7%). Bearish USD in absolute and relative terms. Strong USD bearish moved from 22% to 36%, mainly at neutrals expenses. A quite different reading is in COT positions, as well as margin positions, either showing JPY specs rather short.
OIL 3 months: (First day close $55.85, average response $55.43, Adjusted boundaries $62.99-$49.01)
38% (23%). 16% 76% 8%(38% 47% 15%). Index is bearish in absolute terms, but in relative terms roughly 25% moved from the bearish camp to neutral. Notably, bullish fell further from 15% to 8%, so the improved index is due only to a reduction in the bearish camp.
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