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Tuesday September 14, 2010 - 04:48:59 GMT
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Dollar Sinks on Change in Banking Regs, Chinese Economy

Over the week-end, global banking regulators agreed to close to triple the size of capital reserves that banks must hold against losses. The requirement, however, is not expected to kick-in until 2019 which took the pressure off banks to begin increase capital immediately. The new regulation also gives the banks time to raise the new capital requirement through earnings rather than through the shifting of current capital.

 

On Saturday, China posted a report which showed industrial production was stronger-stronger than expected. Chinese retail sales also rose while August inflation of 3.5% was reported at the pre-report estimate. This helped squelch rumors of another round of monetary policy tightening by the Chinese central bank.

 

Last week investors liquidated their positions in U.S Treasury and Gold markets, indicating that traders were beginning to lean toward an investment in higher yielding assets. This action was partially responsible for the strong rally in equity markets and the higher yielding currencies overnight and throughout today’s U.S. trading session.

 

The U.S. Dollar traded sharply lower on increased demand for risky currencies following the announcement of an agreement by global banking regulators to increase capital requirements. Traders celebrated the announcement because it was much softer than banks anticipated and removed some of the uncertainty that had been lingering in the banking community.

 

The key to sustaining the rally in the higher yielding currencies today was the strong rally in the U.S. equity markets. Although there was a sharp sell-off at midday, aggressive investors bought the dip, helping to under pin the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars.

 

The Euro was up over 1% against the Dollar as an agreement by global regulators on the size of a bank’s capital reserves fueled trader appetite for risk.

 

The EUR USD traded sharply higher after piercing a downtrending Gann angle which has been holding the market back since August 6. Upside momentum was strong but has to continue to build in order to reach the next chart objective at 1.2960.

 

The size of the support base built recently and the three bottom formation at 1.2587, 1.2625 and 1.2644 suggests this market has a strong chance to break out over the last swing top at 1.2919 and reach a .618 price level target by September 16.

 

The GBP USD traded higher, but not as strong as the Euro or the higher yielding currencies. The British Pound continued to find resistance on a downtrending angle from the 1.5997 top at 1.5465 tomorrow. Continue to look for downside pressure as long as the market remains below this angle. Look for an acceleration to the upside once this angle is penetrated.

 

The USD JPY sold off despite last week’s daily closing price reversal bottom which indicated a chance for a breakout to the upside to 84.62. A rally in U.S. equity markets this morning failed to trigger renewed interest in the carry trade which could’ve be bullish for the Dollar/Yen. Traders were also waiting for some news from the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan regarding an intervention. The uncertainty regarding this matter may be keeping traders on the sidelines.

 

The strong rally in the Treasury Bond market despite greater demand for risky currencies and equities may be an indication that investors are still uncertain about the U.S. economy. This may be the reason why the Japanese Yen showed strength today.

 

Besides the threat of an intervention, the equity markets remain rangebound. Until these markets can break out of this range, traders may be skeptical about reviving the carry-trade. This will keep the pressure on the USD JPY.

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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