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Tuesday September 14, 2010 - 09:44:37 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 14/09/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis September 14,
The Euro jumped after the marketâ€™s open and continued a
bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.28 in the morning, and hitting
1.2890 in New York. Now the question is will the EUR succeeds in creating yet
another test of 1.2920? In fact, we do not believe it will, and even if it did,
this will provide a selling opportunity. As we approach 1.2920, sort of
(yesterdayâ€™s high was 1.2890), we believe that topping and creating a medium
term top to fall from for days is very possible. But there is a very critical
condition to this gloomy scenario, which is to top below or close to 1.2920, and
not to break this level decisively. Short term support is at 1.2853, if broken,
the real journey away from 1.2920 will start. In this case we expect a strong
drop to the important 1.2737, and to 1.2658, and even lower than that given
enough time. On the other side, 1.2920 is definitely the resistance of the day,
and only a break here will change the negative outlook. If this happens, we will
target 1.3000 & the important 1.3047.
Sep 1st high.
â€˘ 1.2737: short term Fibonacci 61.8%.
â€˘ 1.2658: Wednesdayâ€™s
â€˘ 1.2920: Aug 19th top.
â€˘ 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium
We broke the support
specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 83.79, and the price dived to 83.07 so far. This
was completely expected, and we do hope that we are on the way to our long
awaited target of 82.00. Last week, we adjusted the falling trend line on the
hourly chart to include Fridayâ€™s jump. We still believe in USD/JPY weakness,
and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will
change our minds. This line is currently running at 84.48 (please refer to the
attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity,
especially after the BoJ disappointed again last week, as the â€śJapsâ€ť said once
again they are watching closely, but they did nothing! The market has had it
with these comments, and now the Japanese authorities should buy tickets to the
â€śYen Showâ€ť, and see what it will do to the Dollar & the Euro! Short term
support is at 83.22, and if broken, we will be on the way to our long-awaited
target at 82.00, then we will see the psychological level at 80.00. On the other
hand, the above mentioned trend line is at 84.48. If broken, the Dollar will be
violent to us all, and actually this break could be a sign of an intervention,
and it will shoot up to 86.25 & 86.95.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term.
â€˘ 82.00: the falling trend line on the
weekly chart, combining the monthly lows of Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009.
80.00: psychological level.
â€˘ 84.48: the falling
trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart
â€˘ 86.25: Jul 16th
â€˘ 86.95: Jul 1st
The Pound jumped after the
marketâ€™s open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above
1.54. The question we presented yesterday was will it succeeds in creating yet
another test of 1.5490? And we have recommended selling close to this level. The
price behavior was completely in line with our analysis. The price stopped at
1.5486 (4 pips before our resistance) and dived to 1.5347 (3 pips before the
target). That was the 4th time this month we test the massive 1.5490! and we
still believe that if there was a 5th time, it is a good selling opportunity,
with a stop above 1.5532. The reasons behind this belief are two: we have seen
how this massive resistance level has rejected the price 4 times recently, and
because the falling trend line from Aug 16th top is just above it providing
another important resistance. It is hard to picture this pair breaking both
levels today. On the other hand, breaking 1.5490 decisively is not probable
today, but if it happens, the Pound will target 1.5575 at the very least, and
then 1.5646. support is at 1.5360, and a break here would be a signal of a big
fall, targeting 1.5262 & 1.5147.
important intraday level.
â€˘ 1.5249: Jul 23rd low.
â€˘ 1.5147: Jul 22nd
â€˘ 1.5490: the massive resistance level
containing the highs of Sep 1st & 6th.
â€˘ 1.5575: Aug 30th high.
1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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