ropean Market Update: European equities decline as Germany's ZEW survey unexpectedly declined and hit levels not seen since Feb 2009 (TTN)
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
European Market Update: European equities decline as Germany's ZEW survey unexpectedly declined and hit levels not seen since Feb 2009
****Economic Data**** (FR) France Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e (FR) France August CPI-EU harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e (IN) India Aug Monthly Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 9.5% v 9.6%e (GE) Germany August Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 4.9%e (FI) Finland August CPI M/M: +0.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1% prior (TU) Turkey Q2 GDP Q/Q: 3.7% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 10.3% v 9.0%e; GDP wda Y/Y: 10.3% v 11.7% prior (IT) Italy Q2 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6% prior; y/y: 3.4% v 3.3% prior (UK) August CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.0%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.5%e (UK) August RPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.6%e; RPI ex mortgage y/y: 4.7% v 4.8%e (UK) UK July DCLG House Prices Y/Y: 8.4% V 8.4%E (GE) Germany Sept ZEW Economic Sentiment: -4.3 v +10.0e; Current Situation: 59.9 v 50.0e (EU) Eurozone Sept ZEW economic sentiment: 4.4 V 14.5E (EU) Eurozone July Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E, Y/Y: 7.1% V 8.0%E (EU) Eurozone Q2 Labor Costs Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.9% Prior
** Fixed Income*** - (NV) Netherlands Debt Agency (DTSA) Sells â‚¬2.8b in 2013 DSL, Avg yield 0.861% v 0.405% prior - (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) Sells â‚¬1.17B in 26 week bills; Avg yield 4.82% v 4.65% prior; Bid-to-Cover 4.5X V 3.6X prior - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency Sells HUF60B in 3-month bills; Avg yield 5.48% v 5.53% prior - (BE) Belgium Debt Agency Auction results - Sells â‚¬804M in 3-month bills v â‚¬700M Expected; Avg yield 0.400% v 0.405% prior - Sells â‚¬2.0B in 12-month treasury certificates, avg yield at 0.760%
Equities: - As of 6:18 AM EST, FTSE 100 +0.4% at 5,567, CAC-40 +0.05% at 3,768 and DAX -0.03% at 6,259 - French vacation resort name Club Meditarranee [CU.FR] traded higher after reporting increasing revenues on a yearly basis. Company swung to profit in its first half and gave a bullish outlook, noting a double digit rise in bookings which starts off winter sales on a positive note. - UK retailer Debenhams [DEB.UK] traded less than 1% higher at the open provided a trading update noting a 9.6% increase in gross transaction value. Company guided its FY10 FY10 headline profit before tax and exceptional items to be in the region of Â£150M, an increase of some 20% over last year and up over 35% on a two year comparison. Ashmore Group [ASH.UK] reported an increasing pre-tax profit and revenues. The assets under management also increased and performance fees as well.
***SPEAKERS*** - (AU) Australia Resource Min Ferguson: No plans to expand the tax into other commodities; No times table set for mining tax laws
- (CH) China Ministry of Finance (MoF) researcher Digan Yifan: Economic outlook to be more clearer following Sept data releases; Data from Q1-Q3 range to help in deciding whether or not keep stimulus policy; US currency legislation may initiate trade war with China.
- (FR) France Budget Min Baroin: Sees 2010 GDP above the 1.4% prior forecast; 2010 Deficit to be below 8% GDP
- (GE) German ZEW Economists: Risk of a double dip in Germany is low; Markets seems to act as if they do not believe in rescue packages for troubled countries; - Experts are concerned by US GDP and bond spreads in Greece.
- (GE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Sees 2010 borrowing at â‚¬50-60B range; Sees 2011 new debt at â‚¬57.5B; sees 2011 economic growth at less than 3%
- (IR) Ireland PM Cowen: Current deficit figures not sustainable - Irish media
- (JP) S&P notes that DPJ election is not credit positive
- (JP) Fitch comments on DPJ results: Kan's victory is not a key near-term credit rating driver
- (PD) Poland Fin Min Rostowski: Planning to introduce bank tax in Jan 2011
- (UK) ZEW's Schroeder: Risk is relatively high for UK double dip - OPEC's El-Badri: Compliance with production at 53%, low quota compliance is not impacting prices
Currencies/Fixed Income: Euro lost its yesterday's gains against the dollar after disappointing German ZEW data which came much lower than consensus expectations at -4.3, its lowest reading since 2009. ZEW economists noted the increased uncertainties given the slowdown in the US economy and expected the capacity utilization to fall by year-end. Bunds extended gains after the ZEW negative number with risk aversion returning to the markets as Europe's largest exporter shows signs of flattening economic growth. European Industrial production was uninspiring further suggesting the sluggish recovery in the Eurozone. Meanwhile British Pound traded higher after UK CPI was stubbornly higher than estimates prompting investors expectations for a hike in rates. It is unlikely, however, that the hike will happen anytime soon BoE members are more concerned with economic recovery rather than inflationary pressures as US growth is uncertain and austerity measures are looming ahead. Gilts lost some of their gains seen earlier in the session after the CPI data. USD/JPY reached 15-yr low ahead of the DPJ election in Japan. It traded higher during Ozawa's speech who has been far more vocal in a unilateral intervention than Kan but plunged again after Kan won the election. There is is still a risk of intervention but markets feel it is unlikely that Kan would intervene solo to soften JPY strength against the dollar.
In the Papers-Geopolitical: The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard looked at recent IMF concerns over unemployment levels. He noted that they were concerned that prolonged unemployment levels can lead to social problems in the US and Europe. The most recent downturn may be more difficult to reabsorb workers who have lost their jobs. According to the IMF's chief economist Blanchard, the level of long term unemployment have risen sharply during the most recent downturn and long term unemployment is alarmingly high.
In Japan, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leadership election resulted in Prime MinisterKan maintaining his position as both leader and Prime Minister of the country with final voting results giving Kan 721 points to 491 points challenger Ozawa. Following the election results, in a press conference, Prime MinisterKan reiterated that he was considering extra budget to supplement economic plan, and additional steps for the economy. He also said that he wanted to stick to three year lower house term with no plans of dissolution for a general election. - In the Telegraph, former US Treasury Secretary Paulson said the US budget deficit could hurt its status as a world superpower. In addition, he stated that though the US economy had slowed, it is not headed for a double-dip recession.
**Observations*** - ZEW lowest reading since February 2009 - Peripheral spreads widen as markets digest Greek bond auction and German ZEW data - USD weakens: USD/CHF hits parity for the first time since Dec 2009, while USD/JPY hit a 15-yr low ; USD index hit 1-month low - EUR/GBP: Dealers note pair is closing in on 0.8390 a level not seen since July 29th USD/CNY 1-yr offshore forwards hit lowest level since late June, after China set yuan at the highest level since the July 2005 revaluation. - Equity markets seeking further direction from the upcoming release of US retail sales.
***Looking Ahead*** - 7:00 (BR) Brazil FGV Inflation IGP-M: 0.7%e v 0.4% prior - 7:30 (US) Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism: 89.0e v 88.1 prior - 7:45 (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e XXX: % w/w; % y/y - 8:00 (PD) Poland Aug CPI M/M: -0.4%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.0% prior - 8:00 (BR) Brazil July Retail Sales M/M: 0.7%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 10.9%e v 11.3% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Q2 Labor Productivity Q/Q: -0.5%e v 0.7% prior; Capacity Utilization: 75.5%e v 74.2% prior - 8:30 (CA) July New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 2.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Aug Advance Retail Sales: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior - 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales - 9:00 (EU) ECB weekly Forex reserves - 10:00 (US) September IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index 44.0e v 43.6 prior - 10:00 (US) July Business Inventories 0.7%e v 0.3% prior - 17:00 (US) Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence: v -43 prior
Fixed Income - 7:00 (EU) ECB 7-day Term Deposit Tender
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.