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Friday April 8, 2005 - 01:24:29 GMT
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Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 8th April 2005

Price: 1.2816

Resistance: 1.2860 ... 1.2885 ... 1.2910 ... 1.2939
Support....: 1.2790 ... 1.2748 ... 1.2705 ... 1.2687

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks though this morning's dip appears to favor the downside

Bullish: Just as we thought the Euro had broken higher we saw a sharp reversal and this has followed through this morning and puts any bullish scenario on the back foot. To return the Euro higher we shall need to see a break back above 1.2860 and 1.2880-85. Only then would we return to a bullish stance with expectations of further gains to above yesterday's high at 1.2939.

Bearish: The dip this morning to current levels appears to put the bearish scenario back in favor. However, it would still be wise to wait for break of 1.2800 which we then feel should cause a decline to 1.2748 at least. Care here. We are more bearish in the longer term but we do need a break of this level to generate further losses below 1.2730 and down to the next target area around 1.2668-87.



Elliott Wave Comments:

8th April 2005

The lack of follow-through at 1.2939 appears to have ended the possible correction to 1.3050-85. Although the structure is not 100% clear we could now label the 1.2800 low as Wave -i- and thus yesterday's high as Wave -ii- which would imply losses to 1.2668 at least being a Wave [iii] projection of 161.8%. Any further would have strongly bearish implications. However, we should also be aware of the 138.2% projection in Wave [iii] at 1.2748 which could also represent a 38.2% expanded flat Wave b and thus rally back to 1.2939.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

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