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Tuesday September 14, 2010 - 20:21:07 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Difficult Trading

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


Difficult Trading

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 14 - It was quite a day Tuesday in NYC, where it seemed the markets were looking for a rangy risk-off day and were surprised when the USD fell through the bottom of its ranges against major currencies. Thus a risk-off day quickly became a risk-on session. I was hard-pressed to come up with a catalyst for the move today although thee was some inter-bank chatter today that real money has been buying EURUSD over the past two sessions. 

Earlier PM Kan fairly easily won the internal DPJ Party vote and was able to fend off a challenge by party kingmaker Ozawa. Kan has walked out with a strong mandate. I expect Kan to attempt to assert some control over the independent BOJ. If political pressure does not work, expect the laws governing the central bank to be changed. What I will be looking for is intervention undertaken with the JPY sold not drained by central bank  operations (sterilized). Thus those excess JPY will be left in the system. The Nikkei index has not had a chance to react to the news, as it had closed when the news had arrived.

Look for more political pressure on China to allow the CNY strengthen over this week and I expect for the Chinese government to make a token gesture. Thus U.S. officials will get something while China will not yield a lot. There has been chatter recently that China has been buying JPY and JGBs to diversify its forex reserves.  The German ZEW survey today was mixed and suggested that the German inventory recovery has just about run its course. 

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major data Wednesday. In Europe, U.K. employment, Swiss ZEW sentiment, and EZ HICP. In North America, the U.S. will see weekly mortgage statistics, import prices, empire PMI, industrial production, capacity utilization and weekly crude statistics. Canadian manufacturing sales are due as well.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision is due very early Thursday. No policy changes are expected.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:03
EUR 1.3006 137 JPY 108.05 40 JPY 129.23 23
GBP 1.5555 134 GBP 83.61 16 CHF 154.85 -55
CHF 0.9955 -122 CHF 1.2947 -21 CHF vs.    
JPY 83.08 -57       JPY 83.46 44

The EURUSD is up on the day and the GBPUSD is higher. The EURGBP cross is steady. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on the U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is down and EURCHF is unchanged. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is down and the EURJPY cross is higher. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:03
CAD 1.0267 -13 AUD 0.9411 61 Gold 1268 23.30
CNY 6.7440 -165 NZD 0.7361 21 WTI 76.89 -0.22

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are mixed vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is unlikely to tighten in September. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses were mixed. U.S. equities are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.67%, -7 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           20:03
NIK 9299 -23 DAX 6275 14 DJIA 10548 4
HSI 21696 38 FTSE 5567 2 S&P 1123 1
SSEC 2689 1 SMI 6466 0 NAS 2293 7
ASX 4627 12       TSE 12150 20

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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