(EU) European Market Update: European equity markets decline as traders evaluate Japan's fx intervention, rise in UK claimant count and Portuguese debt (TTN)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
(EU) European Market Update: European equity markets decline as traders evaluate Japan's fx intervention, rise in UK claimant count and Portuguese debt
***Economic Data*** - (SP) Spain Q2 House Prices Q/Q: +1.6% v -1.2% prior; y/y: -0.9% v -2.9% prior - (CZ) Czech Aug PPI Industrial M/M: -0.4% v 0.1%e v; Y/Y:1.8% v 2.2%e - (CZ) Czech Aug PPI Industrial M/M: -0.4% v 0.1%e v; y/y:1.8% v 2.2%e - (TU) Turkey Current Account (TRY): -3.4B V -3.0BE - (HU) Hungary July Final Industrial Output M/M: -1.1% v -1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 11.5% v 11.5% prelim - (FI) Finland current account: â‚¬470M V â‚¬640M PRIOR - (PH) Philippines July Overseas Workers Remittances: $1.6B v $1.6B prior ; Y/Y: 8.2% v 8.3% prior - (DE) Denmark Aug Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.7% prior - (IT) Italy Aug Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e - (IT) Italy Aug Final CPI (nic incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E - (AS) Austria Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% V -0.4% Prior; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.9% Prio - (NO) Norway Aug Trade Balance (NOK): 20.7B V 28.4B prior - (UK) July ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.8% V 7.8%E - (UK) Aug Jobless Claims Change: 2.3K V -3.0KE; Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% V 4.5%E - (UK) July Average Weekly Earnings 3m/y: 1.5% v 1.7%e; Weekly earnings ex-bonus 3M/Y: 1.8% V 1.7%E - (EU) Euro-zone Aug CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% V 0.9%E - (SZ) Swiss Sept Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: -5.1 V 9.1 PRIOR
Fixed Income: - (GE) Germany sells additional â‚¬4.4B IN 10-YR Bunds; avg yield 2.39% V 2.37% prior; Bid-To-Cover 1.8X V 1.6X prior - (SW) Sweden Debt Agency sells SEK2.5B in 5.0% 2020 bonds vs SEK2.5B expected; Average yield 2.625% - (UK) DMO Sells Â£2b in 4.75% 2030 Gilts; Avg yield 3.95% v 4.06% prior; bid-to-cover 1.49x v 1.86x; tail 0.7 bps - (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sells â‚¬ 750m in 12-month bills v up to â‚¬750m expected; avg yield: 3.369% v 2.77% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 2.1x prior
Equities - As of 5:58 AM EST: FTSE 100 -0.20%, DAX -0.20% and CAC-40 -0.33%
- Among UK's notable names, British clothes retailer Next[NXT.UK] reported its first half net and revenue which had increased on a yearly basis. Company forecast a growth of 1.5-3.5% in revenues but it expected a slow growth in consumer spending and further price pressures. JP Morgan was speculated to be cautious after company's earnings results. Name traded almost flat at the opening. The other British fashion retail French Connection [FCCN.UK] swung to profit in its first half and revenues increased slightly. However company was cautious for its second half. In follow up comments the COO saw a softer level of sales as compared to last year, however, the size of the softness was expected. Pharma name Astra Zeneca [AZN.UK] was trading lower after FDA extended NDA timeline on Brilinta by 3 months to December 16th in order to complete its review, thus eroding revenue off the product. - French energy name Total [FP.FR] opened higher as executive told analysts oil demand was expected to grow by more than 1% per year by 2020. 2010 production was expected to remain stable but H2 production was likely to grow on a yearly basis. - In M&A news, Sinochem executive stated that a Potash [POT] bid is not a good deal for the company. He noted that even a $10B bid is too large for Sinochem, hinting that it may not counterbid after BHP's offer of $39B. However, it may buy assets selectively. Meanwhile, Sanofi continues to pursue Genzyme [GENZ] at $69/shr. Board of Genzyme rejected the offer but Sanofi executives met with more than 50% of Genzyme shareholders in order to convince them that the acquisition would be accretive.
***SPEAKERS*** - (CH) PBoC Adviser Li: China should appropriately raise bank deposit rates to address mild inflation; Expects China to contain CPI rise at 2.9% - (CH) China PBoC adviser Xia Bin: Monetary policy must return to normal - (CH) China ex-PBOC adviser Fan: Gradual rise in yuan currency to help in global and domestic economic stability - (DE) Denmark Central Bank gov Bernstein: Moderate recovery in the country is continuing; output to continue to grow in coming years - (EU) EU's Almunia: Fiscal consolidation can take decade for many - (GE) German Chancellor Merkel: Sees reason for optimism after the crisis - (GR) Greece Fin Min Papaconstantinou: On target to hit deficit target this year; Any funding below 5% is useful; Do not have to return to bond market until 2012, but good for economy to return to bond market sooner; Bond market return depends on market conditions; Higher growth will make debt more manageable. - (JP) MOF Official: FX intervention is not finished; usually fx intervention involves repeated action - (JP) BoJ Noda: Need to watch economic uncertainty triggered by yen rise; Does not expect downward risks to materalize after the intervention - (JP) Japan's Trade Min Naoshima: Expects BoJ to take further steps to fight deflation - (JP) Japan Head of Japan Chamber of Commerce Okamura: Appropriate yen level is 95 v USD - (JP) S&P: Japan rating to be unaffected by DPJ leadership poll - (PD) Poland's Central Bank Board Member Raczko: Intervention is costly and not always effective - (US) World Bank's Pres Zoellick: US unlikely to see double dip; US to see relatively slow growth recovery; Gains by the yuan are appropriate - (UK) BoE Miles: Inflation is uncomfortably above target at the moment; concerned over inflationary pressures - (UK) UK Treasury declines to comment on yen intervention (in line with other central banks) - (SW) Sweden's Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes: Two members (Ekholm and Svensson) had reservations about the interest rate path and opposed rate hike - (SZ) Swiss National Bank (SNB): No comments on any intervention on behalf of BoJ - (TU) OECD: Turkey should gradually tighten its fiscal policy by removing discretionary stimulus; Ensure rapid implementation of fiscal rule reform - (TU) Turkey Fin Min Simsek: Turkey budget to outperform medium-term plans
Currencies/Fixed Income: - Japanese intervention continued to be felt in the European fx session as EUR and GBP headed lower against the dollar after the intervention which spurred dollar buying. The dollar strength was temporary however, as speculations of a restarted QE from Fed tamed dollar strength while EUR and GBP rose against the greenback. - Cable was strong after the intervention and rallied further after BoE's member Miles expressed concern about the sticky inflation data. But the cable dipped following the disappointing UK labor data which suggest that a hike in interest rates is not in the plans in the near future. Gilts were up slightly after the data but erased gains following UK's lukewarm demand for its gilts. - No surprises from Europe as data showed a subdued inflation and flat employment. However, Spanish housing data was an improvement which may signal a stabilization of the peripheral state. Data did little to move EUR/USD as pair movement was relatively flat over the EU session reflecting more the Asian action.
In the Papers-Geopolitical - In the press, France Finance Minister Lagarde stated that proposal for sanctions against EU-member states that exceed deficit caps face legal obstacles, implementation challenges, and objections from overseas. She also said the pursuit for new fiscal rules is running into legal and political difficulties by non-EU members. - The president of the World Bank Zoellick said that the US is unlikely to see double dip recession, though the recovery is to be a period of relatively slow growth. On a global setting, he thought that the recovery was very uncertain. - In the London Telegraph, British fund manager Neil Woodford said a double-dip recession has become more likely in the UK. He goes on to describe that the country could face at least 2 years of declining house prices.
*Notes/Observations*** - (US) Strength in treasuries and weakness in USD during US session attributed to Goldman Sachs chief economist Hatzius forecasting that Fed may buy up to $1T in new debt as part of restarted QE - WSJ - (US) According to Trulia.com, in Aug home owners cut prices on 26% of homes for sale v 25% in July (3rd straight month of lowered asking prices) - (CH) Reportedly, China might consider up to 15% capital ratio for largest banks - USD/JPY: Hearing dealers chatter that there might be another round of yen selling pushing the stops over 86 in NY session - Reportedly Japan MoF may have likely sold Â¥1T in fx market - Chinese eqities close at two week low on rate hike concerns - UK claimant count rose in Aug for the time since Jan
*** Looking ahead*** - 8:30 (CA) Canada July Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior - 8:30 (US) Aug Import Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 4.9% prior - 8:30 (US) Sept Empire Manufacturing: 8.0e v 7.1 prior - 9:00 (BE) Belgium Jun Trade Balance: No est v -â‚¬3.4B prior - 9:00 (PD) Poland Aug Budget Level (PLN): No est v 1.6B prior; Budget Level YTD: No est v -34.9B prior; Budget Performance YTD: No est v 66.9% prior - 9:15 (US) Aug Industrial Production: 0.2%e v 1.0% prior; Capacity Utilization: 75.0%e v 74.8% prior - 10:30 (US) DOE weekly Energy Inventories: - 11:30 (IS) Israel Aug Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y:1.6%e v 1.8% prior - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.2% prior - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.1% prior
Fixed income - 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK8.0B in 5% Bonds Due April 2019 - 6:00 (RU) Russia to Sell Up to RUB35.0B in OFZ Bonds - 6:00 (PD) Poland to sell up to PLN3.5B in Fixed Rate Bonds - 8:00 (RU) Russia to Sell Up to RUB5.0B in OFZ Bonds
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.