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Wednesday September 15, 2010 - 10:18:52 GMT
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(EU) European Market Update: European equity markets decline as traders evaluate Japan's fx intervention, rise in UK claimant count and Portuguese debt (TTN)

Wednesday, September 15, 2010 6:08:32 AM

 (EU) European Market Update: European equity markets decline as traders evaluate Japan's fx intervention, rise in UK claimant count and Portuguese debt

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***Economic Data***
- (SP) Spain Q2 House Prices Q/Q: +1.6% v -1.2% prior; y/y: -0.9% v -2.9% prior
- (CZ) Czech Aug PPI Industrial M/M: -0.4% v 0.1%e v; Y/Y:1.8% v 2.2%e
- (CZ) Czech Aug PPI Industrial M/M: -0.4% v 0.1%e v; y/y:1.8% v 2.2%e
- (TU) Turkey Current Account (TRY): -3.4B V -3.0BE
- (HU) Hungary July Final Industrial Output M/M: -1.1% v -1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 11.5% v 11.5% prelim
- (FI) Finland current account: €470M V €640M PRIOR
- (PH) Philippines July Overseas Workers Remittances: $1.6B v $1.6B prior ; Y/Y: 8.2% v 8.3% prior
- (DE) Denmark Aug Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.7% prior
- (IT) Italy Aug Final
CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (IT) Italy Aug Final
CPI (nic incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E
- (AS) Austria Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% V -0.4% Prior; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.9% Prio
- (NO) Norway Aug Trade Balance (NOK): 20.7B V 28.4B prior
- (UK) July ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.8% V 7.8%E
- (UK) Aug Jobless Claims Change: 2.3K V -3.0KE; Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% V 4.5%E
- (UK) July Average Weekly Earnings 3m/y: 1.5% v 1.7%e; Weekly earnings ex-bonus 3M/Y: 1.8% V 1.7%E
- (EU) Euro-zone Aug
CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% V 0.9%E
- (SZ) Swiss Sept Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: -5.1 V 9.1 PRIOR

Fixed Income:
- (GE) Germany sells additional €4.4B IN 10-YR Bunds; avg yield 2.39% V 2.37% prior; Bid-To-Cover 1.8X V 1.6X prior
- (SW) Sweden Debt Agency sells SEK2.5B in 5.0% 2020 bonds vs SEK2.5B expected; Average yield 2.625%
- (UK) DMO Sells £2b in 4.75% 2030 Gilts; Avg yield 3.95% v 4.06% prior; bid-to-cover 1.49x v 1.86x; tail 0.7 bps
- (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sells € 750m in 12-month bills v up to €750m expected; avg yield: 3.369% v 2.77% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 2.1x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **

Equities
- As of 5:58 AM EST: FTSE 100 -0.20%, DAX -0.20% and CAC-40 -0.33%

- Among UK's notable names, British clothes retailer Next [NXT.UK] reported its first half net and revenue which had increased on a yearly basis. Company forecast a growth of 1.5-3.5% in revenues but it expected a slow growth in consumer spending and further price pressures. JP Morgan was speculated to be cautious after company's earnings results. Name traded almost flat at the opening. The other British fashion retail French Connection [FCCN.UK] swung to profit in its first half and revenues increased slightly. However company was cautious for its second half. In follow up comments the COO saw a softer level of sales as compared to last year, however, the size of the softness was expected. Pharma name Astra Zeneca [AZN.UK] was trading lower after FDA extended NDA timeline on Brilinta by 3 months to December 16th in order to complete its review, thus eroding revenue off the product.
- French energy name Total [FP.FR] opened higher as executive told analysts oil demand was expected to grow by more than 1% per year by 2020. 2010 production was expected to remain stable but H2 production was likely to grow on a yearly basis.
- In M&A news, Sinochem executive stated that a Potash [
POT] bid is not a good deal for the company. He noted that even a $10B bid is too large for Sinochem, hinting that it may not counterbid after BHP's offer of $39B. However, it may buy assets selectively. Meanwhile, Sanofi continues to pursue Genzyme [GENZ] at $69/shr. Board of Genzyme rejected the offer but Sanofi executives met with more than 50% of Genzyme shareholders in order to convince them that the acquisition would be accretive.

***SPEAKERS***
- (CH) PBoC Adviser Li: China should appropriately raise bank deposit rates to address mild inflation; Expects China to contain CPI rise at 2.9%
- (CH) China PBoC adviser Xia Bin: Monetary policy must return to normal
- (CH) China ex-
PBOC adviser Fan: Gradual rise in yuan currency to help in global and domestic economic stability
- (DE) Denmark Central Bank gov Bernstein: Moderate recovery in the country is continuing; output to continue to grow in coming years
- (EU) EU's Almunia: Fiscal consolidation can take decade for many
- (GE) German Chancellor Merkel: Sees reason for optimism after the crisis
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Papaconstantinou: On target to hit deficit target this year; Any funding below 5% is useful; Do not have to return to bond market until 2012, but good for economy to return to bond market sooner; Bond market return depends on market conditions; Higher growth will make debt more manageable.
- (JP) MOF Official: FX intervention is not finished; usually fx intervention involves repeated action
- (JP) BoJ Noda: Need to watch economic uncertainty triggered by yen rise; Does not expect downward risks to materalize after the intervention
- (JP) Japan's Trade Min Naoshima: Expects BoJ to take further steps to fight deflation
- (JP) Japan Head of Japan Chamber of Commerce Okamura: Appropriate yen level is 95 v USD
- (JP) S&P: Japan rating to be unaffected by DPJ leadership poll
- (PD) Poland's Central Bank Board Member Raczko: Intervention is costly and not always effective
- (US) World Bank's Pres Zoellick: US unlikely to see double dip; US to see relatively slow growth recovery; Gains by the yuan are appropriate
- (UK) BoE Miles: Inflation is uncomfortably above target at the moment; concerned over inflationary pressures
- (UK) UK Treasury declines to comment on yen intervention (in line with other central banks)
- (SW) Sweden's Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes: Two members (Ekholm and Svensson) had reservations about the interest rate path and opposed rate hike
- (SZ) Swiss National Bank (SNB): No comments on any intervention on behalf of BoJ
- (TU) OECD: Turkey should gradually tighten its fiscal policy by removing discretionary stimulus; Ensure rapid implementation of fiscal rule reform
- (TU) Turkey Fin Min Simsek: Turkey budget to outperform medium-term plans

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Japanese intervention continued to be felt in the European fx session as EUR and GBP headed lower against the dollar after the intervention which spurred dollar buying. The dollar strength was temporary however, as speculations of a restarted QE from Fed tamed dollar strength while EUR and GBP rose against the greenback.
- Cable was strong after the intervention and rallied further after BoE's member Miles expressed concern about the sticky inflation data. But the cable dipped following the disappointing
UK labor data which suggest that a hike in interest rates is not in the plans in the near future. Gilts were up slightly after the data but erased gains following UK's lukewarm demand for its gilts.
- No surprises from
Europe as data showed a subdued inflation and flat employment. However, Spanish housing data was an improvement which may signal a stabilization of the peripheral state. Data did little to move EUR/USD as pair movement was relatively flat over the EU session reflecting more the Asian action.

In the Papers-Geopolitical
- In the press, France Finance Minister Lagarde stated that proposal for sanctions against EU-member states that exceed deficit caps face legal obstacles, implementation challenges, and objections from overseas. She also said the pursuit for new fiscal rules is running into legal and political difficulties by non-EU members.
- The president of the World Bank Zoellick said that the
US is unlikely to see double dip recession, though the recovery is to be a period of relatively slow growth. On a global setting, he thought that the recovery was very uncertain.
- In the London Telegraph, British fund manager Neil Woodford said a double-dip recession has become more likely in the
UK. He goes on to describe that the country could face at least 2 years of declining house prices.

*Notes/Observations***
- (US) Strength in treasuries and weakness in USD during US session attributed to Goldman Sachs chief economist Hatzius forecasting that Fed may buy up to $1T in new debt as part of restarted QE - WSJ
- (US) According to Trulia.com, in Aug home owners cut prices on 26% of homes for sale v 25% in July (3rd straight month of lowered asking prices)
- (CH) Reportedly, China might consider up to 15% capital ratio for largest banks
- USD/JPY: Hearing dealers chatter that there might be another round of yen selling pushing the stops over 86 in NY session
- Reportedly Japan MoF may have likely sold ¥1T in fx market
- Chinese eqities close at two week low on rate hike concerns
- UK claimant count rose in Aug for the time since Jan

*** Looking ahead***
- 8:30 (CA) Canada July Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) Aug Import Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 4.9% prior
- 8:30 (US) Sept Empire Manufacturing: 8.0e v 7.1 prior
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Jun Trade Balance: No est v -€3.4B prior
- 9:00 (PD) Poland Aug Budget Level (PLN): No est v 1.6B prior; Budget Level YTD: No est v -34.9B prior; Budget Performance YTD: No est v 66.9% prior
- 9:15 (US) Aug Industrial Production: 0.2%e v 1.0% prior; Capacity Utilization: 75.0%e v 74.8% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE weekly Energy Inventories:
- 11:30 (IS) Israel Aug Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y:1.6%e v 1.8% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.2% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.1% prior

Fixed income
- 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK8.0B in 5% Bonds Due April 2019
- 6:00 (RU) Russia to Sell Up to RUB35.0B in OFZ Bonds
- 6:00 (PD) Poland to sell up to PLN3.5B in Fixed Rate Bonds
- 8:00 (RU) Russia to Sell Up to RUB5.0B in OFZ Bonds

 

 

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