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Wednesday September 15, 2010 - 10:28:00 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 15/09/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis September 15, 2010
The Euro jumped strongly yesterday, even though it initially broke the
support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report. We broke the important level
specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.2920, and successfully reached the
first suggested target of 1.3000. We have seen the EURUSD jumping more
than 100 pips above the massive 1.2920, this shows that even when they
are broken, important levels provide good trading opportunities just as
when they hold and reverse the trend. During the Asian session the Euro
dropped to create a correction of 38.2% of yesterdayâ€™s jump. It stopped
with astonishing accuracy at the short term Fibonacci 38.2% level,
bottoming at 1.2954, just 1 pip above the Fibo level. This will be our
support for today, and if broken, we expect the drop which has gained 80
pips so far to go on. Targets will be 1.2886 & 1.2764. On the other
hand, yesterdayâ€™s rise almost made it to the all important medium term
61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3047. this is the most important resistance
level for now, if broken we will be on the way to levels above 1.31, the
most important of which are 1.3118 & 1.3194.
â€˘ 1.2954: Asian session low & short term Fibonacci 38.2% level.
â€˘ 1.2886: the rising trend line from Fridayâ€™s low on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.2764: Sep 9th high.
â€˘ 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. The most important
resistance level at the moment.
â€˘ 1.3118: Aug 5th low.
â€˘ 1.3194: Aug 2nd high.
All the major Yen pairs jumped together during the Asian session,
gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have
done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference,
finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: â€śyes, we have
intervenedâ€ť! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited
intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82
appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people
would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but
the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then
things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention
has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top
on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a
huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling
trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price
will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is
at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then
â€˘ 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
â€˘ 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.
â€˘ 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart
â€˘ 86.95: Jul 1st low.
â€˘ 87.56: Jul 20th high.
The Pound jumped yesterday and broke the resistance specified in
yesterdayâ€™s report 1.5490, and reached the first suggested target for
this break at 1.5575 successfully. After it topped 10 pips above our
target then dropped hard for more than 100 pips. This is a sign of
exhaustion, and that breaking 1.5490, which we believe is very
important, only had a short term effect on the price behavior. This
morning we approached a critical short term support level which is
Fibonacci 61.8% for the latest rise from 1.5347 on Monday to 1.5585
yesterday. This level which is at 1.5438 is the most important support
for now. The drop stopped just 10 pips above it a few hours ago, and if
is broken, then the Pound has already topped medium term yesterday at
1.5585, and it will continue its drop targeting the very attractive
1.5326, and at a later time 1.5249. On the other hand, the Pound should
break the resistance 1.5533 to keep the chances of another jump alive.
If it succeeds, we expect it to target medium term important levels:
1.5646 & 1.5728.
â€˘ 1.5438: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
â€˘ 1.5326: Aug 31st low.
â€˘ 1.5249: Jul 23rd low.
â€˘ 1.5533: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.
â€˘ 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
â€˘ 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
trading analysis written by Munther
Marji for Forexpros.
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