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Wednesday September 15, 2010 - 11:00:36 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- BOJ Intervention

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis

BOJ Intervention

10:00 GMT ( Sep 15- The Bank of Japan surprised the markets early today by initiating a round of heavy intervention in the USD which apparently was unsterilized. There are market reports that they have remained in the markets during European hours, and we have to assume they will be active during U.S. trading as well. While the timing of the intervention was a surprise, the actions were inevitable with the strong currency a significant weight on the economy. Reportedly, the BOJ stepped in just below the 83.00 line and the central bank might be aiming to take out resting sell orders in USDJPY on top. The importance of unsterilized forex intervention is that the JPY being dumped into the forex markets should work their way into Japanese money markets and provide additional monetary stimulus (Quantitative Ease) to the Japanese economy. 

Frankly, we have no idea if these actions by the BOJ are going to work. Central bank intervention usually is seen as a psychological tool to combat a speculative run in a currency. Recent JPY strength seems to have had all the earmarks of a fundamental run. For the balance of the week, expect activity in the JPY to dominate trading.  

Look for more political pressure on China to allow the CNY strengthen over this week and I expect for the Chinese government to make a token gesture. Thus U.S. officials will get something while China will not yield a lot. There has been chatter recently that China may have been buying JPY and JGBs to diversify its forex reserves.  


UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In North America, the U.S. will see weekly mortgage statistics, import prices, empire PMI, industrial production, capacity utilization and weekly crude statistics. Canadian manufacturing sales are due as well.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision is due very early Thursday. No policy changes are expected.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads



Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:52
EUR 1.2968 -38 JPY 110.73 268 JPY 132.37 314
GBP 1.5502 -53 GBP 83.65 4 CHF 155.58 73
CHF 1.0036 81 CHF 1.3015 67 CHF vs.    
JPY 85.39 231       JPY 85.08 163

The EURUSD is steady on the day and the GBPUSD is easier. The EURGBP cross is steady. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on the U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is up and EURCHF is higher. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is up sharply and the EURJPY cross is higher. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge


Commodity         9:52
CAD 1.0296 29 AUD 0.9358 -53 Gold 1268 0.25
CNY 6.7424 -16 NZD 0.7304 -57 WTI 75.95 -0.94

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are lower vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is unlikely to tighten in September. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 


Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses were down. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.70%, +3 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 


Equities           9:52
NIK 9517 217 DAX 6269 -7 DJIA 10526 -22
HSI 21726 30 FTSE 5561 -6 S&P 1121 -2
SSEC 2653 -36 SMI 6462 0 NAS 2290 -3
ASX 4662 35       TSE 12193 43

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Prior to, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Mar 2018
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
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