European Market Update: EUR/USD hits 1-month high following Spanish bond auction results (TTN)
Thursday, September 16, 2010
European Market Update: EUR/USD hits 1-month high following Spanish bond auction results
***Economic Data*** - (EU) Euro Zone EU 25 New Car Registrations: -12.9% V -18.6% PRIOR - (IN) India Weekly Primary Articles WPI y/y: 16.2% v 15.4% prior; Food Articles WPI: 15.1% v 11.5% prior - (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) raises key interest rates; Repo raised by 25bps to 6.00% (as expected); Reverse Repo raised by 50bps to 5.00% (more than 25bps expected). Cash reserve ratio is unchanged at 6.0% - (SZ) Swiss Q2 Industrial Production Q/Q: 5.7% v 6.1%e; Y/Y: 7.8% v 8.0%e - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Sept 10: $475.7B v $477.3B prior - (SW) Sweden Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.8%e - SW) Sweden Average House Prices (SEK): 2.0M v 1.908M prior - (NE) Netherlands Aug Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.5%e - NE) Netherlands July Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.9% v 2.0%e - (RU) Russia Aug Producer Prices M/M: 3.3% v 1.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 9.0% v 7.4%e - (HK) Hong Kong Aug Unemployment Rate: 4.2% v 4.3%e - (UK) Aug Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: -0.5% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 1.9%e - (UK) Aug Retail Sales ex/Auto Fuel M/M: -0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.8%e - (UK) Bank of England Inflation Attitude Report: UK August 12-mo CPI expected at 3.4% y/y vs 3.3% May (highest since aug 2008) - (HK) Hong Kong Aug Unemployment Rate: 4.2% v 4.3%e - (EU) Euro-zone July Trade Balance: â‚¬6.7B v â‚¬1.3Be; Trade Balance seasonally adj: -â‚¬200m v -â‚¬500Me - (PD) Central/Eastern European Sept ZEW Indicator: 17.3 v 20.5 prior - (GR) Greece Q2 Unemployment rate: 11.8% v 11.7% prior - (IT) Italy July Current Account: â‚¬535M v -â‚¬2.7B prior
Fixed Income - (SP) Spain debt agency (tesoro) sells â‚¬4B in two tranches of 30 yr and 10 yr bonos - (FR) France Debt Agency Auction Results; Sells total â‚¬8.45b in three tranches - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sells HUF50B versus HUF50B Target in 12-month bills; avg yield 5.80% v 5.82% prior - (UK) DMO Sells Â£3.0b in 3.75% 2020 gilts; avg yield 3.21% v 3.46% prior, bid-to-cover 1.68x v 1.9x prior
Equities: - As of 5:25 AM EST, FTSE 100 -0.05%, CAC-40 -0.20%, DAX flat Equities news were light during the EU session with just a few UK names reporting. In line with most UK companies, caution was the dominant theme in today's trading updates as well, given the austerity measures planned by the UK coalition. Home improvement retailer Kingfisher [KGF.UK] reported a rise in net profit but flat revenues for the first half. Company cautioned that consumer environment would remain challenging throughout 2011 despite that no significant downturn was expected. Kesa Electrics [KESA.UK] reported a strong growth revenue growth of 8.2% driven by world cup. Company remained cautious on the outlook as well and anticipated that environment would remain challenging. Private retailer John Lewis also cautioned for second half of the year despite rising sales in both its divisions, Waitrose and John Lewis. Chemring [CHG.UK] had a more reassuring trading update reporting a strengthening of the trade and a rise in revenues. Furthermore, company was the only one of the group that was confident in achieving its FY10 outlook.
**Speakers*** - (CH) China Banking Regulator (CBRC): No new capital adequacy ratio for big banks - (FR) France Budget Min Baroin: Sees 2010 growth slightly above 1.5% forecast; 2010 budget deficit may fall to 7.9% of GDP - (GE) German Econ Min Bruederle: 2010 GDP clearly above 2.5% - (GE) Germany Labor Agency Institute: Guides 2010 avg jobless at 3.24M and 2.96M for 2011 - (GR) Greece's PM Papandreou: Greece's policies remain on track; sees real progress and change - Moody's Senior Analyst: Sees upward pressure on Polish and Czech rating - (JP) Japan official: Reiterates intervention not over yet; future intervention depends on market conditions - (JP) Japan's PM Kan warns of more action on yen - FT - (JP) BoJ Gov Shirakawa: Pace of recovery slowing; US economy showing signs of slowdown - (RU) IMF: Russia's biggest challenge will be the financial stimulus withdrawal; recent inflation due to supply shock - (SZ) Swiss Govt: Raises 2010 GDP forecast to 2.7% v 1.8% prior; Further gains in the franc cannot be excluded; considerable uncertainty remains for fx outlook
Currencies/Fixed Income: - Japanese intervention effect started to evaporate from the EU session while Euro continued its rally towards the dollar. Euro continues to trade comfortably above the 1.300 level at 1.308. It also rose against the swissy trading currently at 1.308 ahead of the SNB's decision due in NY morning. The strength was also driven by the bad UK retail data which plunged the sterling. - Cable was trading higher in early EU session but registered session lows at 1.5540 as UK retail data dropped more than expected m/m and rose slightly y/y. Inflationary pressures continue to be creep higher in the UK as shown by BoE inflationary attitude report. British consumers have heightened thei inflationary expectations in August compared to the May report and also view current inflation at a higher level than it actually is. However, cable regained its strength trading at 1.5592 currently as traders remain bullish on the cross - All eyes are on SNB decision widely expected to leave 3-month labor target unchanged. Note that SNB has a target range between 0-0.25%. Traders are closely watching for words like deflation and any comment on the CHF. In June, SNB noted that deflation risks have largely dissipated but that the bank will act if the CHF appreciation threatened deflation. Markets do not expect SNB to resume intervention after the failed attempts to curb swissy's strength cost CHF14B to the SNB, and almost got Hildebrand fired. After SNB raised its growth forecast, It is likely that the SNB will reiterate that the accommodative policy cannot remain in place forever, as often repeated by many central bankers and govt officials. However, economic outlook is uncertain and it is unlikely for the Swiss bank to take any drastic action today or any time soon. - Bunds were trading lower in the session as stock markets opened higher. Bunds continue to trade lower compared to the Gilts which continue to decline. Gilts rose a little after the disappointing UK data but erased their gains after the unattractive gilts auction.
In the Papers-Geopolitical: - The Germany Labor Agency Institute forecasted unemployment data for Germany. The institute guides 2010 average unemployment at 3.24 Million, and 2.96 Million for next year. - The Italy Business Association confirmed its prior 2010 GDP 1.2%, and lowered its 2011 GDP guidance to 1.3% from 1.6% prior. - In Chile, union official state workers at the coutry's largest copper producer Codelco's Radomiro Tomic mine rejected an initial wage deal that reportedly would have avoided disruption to the copper supply. The wage proposal, including bonus and loans, is valued at an estimated $31,000 for each of the 760 workers involved. - The IMF assessed Russia's fiscal situation and said that its biggest challenge will be the withdrawal of financial stimulus withdrawal, and that the recent inflation experienced in the country was due to supply shocks. It expects the Russian Central Bank to move towards interest rate hikes, though there is no need for the Central Bank to react to a rise in inflation.
- Euro moves to 1 month against the USD following Spanish bond auction results - German 2-yr yield moves above 0.80% for the first time since early Aug - Dealers once again eyeing 0.8390 for EUR/GBP - Swiss Franc broadly weaker ahead of 8:00 AM EST SNP meeting - Chinese equities end lower on renewed policy tightening concerns - India's central bank hikes rates to deal with inflation risk
*** Looking Ahead - 8:00 (SZ) SNB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the 3-Month Libor Target Rate unchanged at the 0.25% level - 8:00 (PD) Poland Aug Avg Gross Wages M/M: -1.1% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 2.1% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Aug Employment M/M: 0.20%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.4% prior - 8:30 (US) Aug Producer Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 459Ke v 451K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.465Ke v 4.478M prior - 8:30 (US) Q2 Current Account: -$125Be v -$109.0B prior - 8:30 (CL) Chile Aug Copper Exports: No est v $3.1B prior - 9:00 (US) July Net Long-term TIC Flows: $47.5Be v $44.4B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$6.7B prior - 9:30/10:30 (US) Weekly stats on Commercial Paper outstanding - 10:00 (US) Sept Philadelphia Fed: 0.3e v -7.7 prior - 10:30 (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories - 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions: Expected to leave the Benchmark Repo Rate unchanged at the current 7.00% level - 16:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Tax Collections (BRL) No est v 68.0B prior - 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Nominal Overnight Rate Target by 50bps to 2.50% - 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK8.0B in 12-month Bills (364-Days)
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.