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Friday September 17, 2010 - 20:19:42 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Risk Trade Dissipates

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


Risk Trade Dissipates

18:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 17- Markets have been thin and choppy recently as many have reduced exposures as they adjust to the new realities of the world in light of the recent intervention activities of the Bank of Japan. As we have been saying, the trading game now is to try to figure out how to work around BOJ forex intervention. Dealers know the BOJ is probably waiting in the wings and have to position themselves defensively. SNB intervention earlier this year failed because that central bank had become too predictable. Traders would get long EURCHF and take profits on the intervention forays by the SNB. 

No doubt many are already long USDJPY and are waiting for a BOJ-led spike to take profits. When central banks become predictable, intervention does not work.. Wednesdays forex intervention was heavy and estimated to have been about JPY2tln (USD 22bln). The Japanese decision to undertake forex intervention was not taken lightly. They are serious and will act on THEIR schedule. It is thought that the ultimate BOJ target might be 90.00, but that will take time. 

One key item to consider heading into next week is that the recent USD weakness vs. Europe is thought to have been in anticipation of  a Quantitative Easing (QE) decision next Tuesday by the FOMC. We had felt strongly that QE2 was likely a couple of weeks ago, but recent data from the U.S. have bit sustained the weakening tone we were seeing a month ago. Its possible the FOMC does nothing. 

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS The Far East will see a Japanese holiday. In Europe , no key data are due. In North America, the U.S. will see the NAHB house builders index.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:05
EUR 1.3038 -42 JPY 111.84 -48 JPY 134.00 -18
GBP 1.5621 -5 GBP 83.46 -24 CHF 157.73 -85
CHF 1.0097 -51 CHF 1.3164 -109 CHF vs.    
JPY 85.78 -9       JPY 84.96 34

The EURUSD is lower on the day and the GBPUSD is steady. The EURGBP cross is lower. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on the U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is down and EURCHF is lower. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is steady and the EURJPY cross is lower. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:05
CAD 1.0313 51 AUD 0.9364 -6 Gold 1274 -0.05
CNY 6.7240 -10 NZD 0.7254 7 WTI 73.61 -0.82

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are mixed vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is unlikely to tighten in September. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mostly up. European bourses are lower. U.S. equities are up. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.74%, -2 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           20:05
NIK 9626 117 DAX 6210 -40 DJIA 10605 10
HSI 21971 279 FTSE 5508 -32 S&P 1126 1
SSEC 2599 -3 SMI 6389 0 NAS 2316 13
ASX 4639 34       TSE 12173 29

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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