Monday September 20, 2010 - 03:37:26 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 20-Sep-2010 - 0338 GMT
Asian Equities are mixed/ consolidative today, some in red, some in green. The Nikkei had ended at 9626.9 on Friday and is closed today. Friday had seen the Dow close mixed at 10607.85 just below an important Resistance at 10650. Should this Resistance break this week, a further rise towards 11000 might be seen.
The Sensex (19594.75) / Nifty (5884.95) might also consolidate a bit today after the scorching rise last week. There is likely to be confusion about whether the markets will rise further or not.
Crude (73.90) continued with its downmove and closed lower for the fourth consecuitve day on Friday. The weak US Consumer sentiment data and confirmation on the restart of Enbridge's operation retained the price lower. Support is seen at 72.75-50 region which has held during Firday's sharp fall. We will have to wait and see whether this Support region continues to hold or not. 72.75 is an important Trendline Support on the 3-day chart. To see the Support on the 3-day candle chart click on the following link:
Gold (1277.80) is continuing to trade strong. 1280 is the immediate Resistance seen and a break above it might trigger further upmove towards 1320-50 in the coming days. Support is seen in 1270-50 region. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Overall, the Dollar has today given back some of the gains it managed to eke out on Friday evening, after a disastrous session earlier in the day.
Japan is closed for "Respect for the Aged Day" today. It is closed agaon on Thursday for Autumn Equinox. Consequently, Dollar-Yen trades sideways near 85.65. The Euro (1.3075) has recovered slightly from the fall to 1.3019 in the US session on Friday, following concerns about Ireland's sovereign debt. Intra-day Resistance at 1.3120 needs careful watching.
The Pound (1.5665) is looking good, trading up from a US session low of 1.5592. Dollar-Swiss (1.0089) is trading lower from Friday's high near 1.0183, which is a significant Ressitance on the Daily. The Aussie (0.9405) has recovered a decent bit after dipping to 0.9334 in the US sesson on Friday. It is consolidating a bit just now and has chances of rising towards 0.9500.
In Asia, Sing Dollar (1.3357) has strengthened again and is testing the crucial Support at 1.3350. A break could lead to a fall towards 1.3200. Dollar-Won (1162.50) is steady. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 45.83 on Friday. Resistance should be seen at 46.10. Chances of range of 45.70-46.10 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 1 bps and 2 bps each to quote at 0.46% and 2.74% respectively.
The FOMC meeting on interest rate is scheduled for tomorrow (21-Sept-10) and is expected to leave the rates unchanged near zero (<0.25%).
No major data release today. Japan is closed. FOMC tomorrow.
US May Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.0%...Previous 0.1%
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