Tuesday September 21, 2010 - 03:45:10 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 21-Sep-2010 - 0342 GMT
The US Equities continued their rally yesterday on expectations of some positive action by the Fed in their meeting due later today. The Dow (10753.62) was up 1.37% and the S&P 500 (1142.71) was up 1.52%. The Dow has reached our target of 10750 yesterday and may move up towards 11000 in the coming weeks.
The Asian Equities are all in the Green today. The Nikkei (9664.52, up 0.40%) moved up following the surge on wall Street and may touch 9700-50 in the next few days. The Shanghai (2591.91, up 0.12%) may fall further towards 2500 in the coming days/weeks. In India, the Sensex (19906.10, up 1.59%) and the Nifty (5980.45, up 1.62%) were up following strong global sentiments yesterday. The Sensex may move up towards 20500 in the next few sessions, a strong break above which may drive it further towards 22000 in the coming weeks.
Crude (74.43) has risen sharply above 74 yesterday. The stronger equity markets and weaker dollar triggered the price rise.Technically the Support in 72.75-50 region has held very and has now increased the chances of further rise towards 76-78 once aagain in the coming days.
Gold (1278.20) is continuing to trade strong. An intraday break above the Resistance at 1280 was seen yesterday but closed slightly lower below 1280 at 1279.30. The broader bullish sentiment is intact and we might expect further upmove towards 1320-50 in the coming weeks.
The Dollar still has its back to the wall, with the Dollar Index at 81.30, trading exactly on a long-term trendline Support. The Euro (1.3090) now has Support at 1.3050 and might move up towards 1.32. Dollar-Yen (85.60) has been trading sideways since yesterday on account of the Japanese holiday yesterday. Good Support is now seen at 85.00 and a rise towards 87.50 is likely.
Dollar-Swiss (1.0030) gave up more of last week's gains (to 1.0183) yesterday and could dip a bit more towards 1.0000-0.9980. The Pound (1.5570) lost goodish ground yesterday, coming off further from Friday's high near 1.5729. It now has good Support near 1.5520. The EUR-GBP (0.8404) Cross seems to have formed a good bottom and could be headed higher, towards 0.8500. This might keep the Pound pressured.
The Aussie (0.9445) rose to a high near 0.9490 yesterday, but has retreated a bit from there. It has Resistance at 0.9500-25 for this week and at 0.9600-35 for next week. Support is seen in the 0.9300-9270 region.
Among Emerging currencies, the Won (1160.30) continues to trade sideways, possibly supported by the central bank. The Brazilian Real (1.7265) has weakened a decent bit from levels near 1.7125 yesterday, with the US-Dollar presumably supported by the Brazilian central bank ahead of the Petrobras issue closure on Thursday. In the meanwhile, the Sing Dollar (1.3333) has strengthened further yesterday and trades below 1.3350. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 46.7050 yesterday and could rise a bit towards 45.80-85 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were unchanged at 0.46% while the 10Y yields were down 4 bps to quote at 2.70%.
The FOMC meeting on interest rate is scheduled for today and is expected to leave the rates unchanged near zero (<0.25%).
11:00 GMT CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Expected 1.7%...Previous 1.6%
12:30 GMT US July Housing Starts
...Expected 0.55 Mln...Previous 0.55 Mln
18:15 GMT US FOMC Interest Rate
...Expected <0.25%...Previous <0.25
No major data release yesterday.
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