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Tuesday September 21, 2010 - 20:38:01 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- FOMC Market-Mover

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


FOMC Market-Mover

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 21-  No surprises from the Fed today, as we were expecting, they downgraded their economic outlook and reaffirmed that rates would be maintained at exceptionally low levels for an extended time period. Some feel the central bank has opened the door to additional quantitative easing (QE2) at the November FOMC. One reason why the central bank might have been reluctant to take any action today was that we are in a election period. Recent economic data have been mixed to negative and many are expecting their official economic forecasts to be lowered at their next meeting. Equities took some comfort at the prospect of an easier Fed policy.

Japanese PM Kan is scheduled to meet with President Obama in Washington  on Thursday. At this time Kan will be able to explain the need for forex intervention to the U.S. administration first hand. We doubt if Tokyo would want to stir the waters before this meeting. Note also that the CNY has gained modestly today, perhaps in response to explicit pressure from Obama yesterday. In the minds of most, its not a question of if, its a question only of when, the BOJ resurfaces with yet another round of intervention. 

The Greece, Ireland and Spain successfully tapped the short term markets for funds today and this has given the EURUSD a lift. Traders are skeptical about any long term implications for this. Today there has been a bit of a squeeze on short EURCHF positions.

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS The Far East will see no major data. China will be closed for a holiday. In Europe , EZ new industrial orders and Belgian leading indicators are due. In North America , Canadian Leading indicators and retail sales are slated. The U.S. will see weekly mortgage stats, and DOE (EIA) energy inventories.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:07
EUR 1.3242 183 JPY 112.65 63 JPY 132.83 -53
GBP 1.5614 67 GBP 84.81 81 CHF 155.61 -70
CHF 0.9966 -88 CHF 1.3197 67 CHF vs.    
JPY 85.07 -71       JPY 85.36 4

The EURUSD is up on the day and the GBPUSD is higher. The EURGBP cross is up. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on the U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is down and EURCHF is up. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is lower and the EURJPY cross is higher. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:07
CAD 1.0267 -24 AUD 0.9543 73 Gold 1288 10.23
CNY 6.7069 -76 NZD 0.7338 47 WTI 73.52 -1.27

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are higher vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is likely to tighten in October. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses were weaker. U.S. equities are up. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.61%, -10 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           20:07
NIK 9602 -24 DAX 6276 -19 DJIA 10758 -2
HSI 22003 25 FTSE 5576 -26 S&P 1139 -4
SSEC 2589 0 SMI 6420 0 NAS 2346 -7
ASX 4618 -14       TSE 12235 70

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


Important Notice

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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