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Tuesday September 21, 2010 - 21:06:45 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 September 2010)

The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3150 level and was supported around the $1.3055 level.  The Federal Open Market Committee met today and voted to keep monetary policy unchanged.  The FOMC reported “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term. Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.  The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.  The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.”  Notably, Kansas City Fed President Hoenig again dissented with the majority, reporting the economic recovery remains “moderate.”  Today’s Fed statement evidences the divergence of views on the Committee and was more bearish than expected.  The U.S. dollar sold off on the statement on the premise the Fed will need to keep rates lower for an extended period of time.  Data released in the U.S. today saw August housing starts up a surprise 10.5% m/m to an annualized 598,000 while August building permits were up 1.8% m/m to an annualized 569,000.  MBA mortgage applications data will be released tomorrow.  In eurozone news, there were no major data released today.  European Central Bank member Wellink reported the ECB may reconsider exiting its monetary policy if economic growth is at risk.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2995 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥85.25 level and was capped around the ¥85.75 level.  The pair briefly traded below the ¥85 level after the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.  Former MoF official “Mr Yen” Sakakibara warned Japan’s intervention will not prevent the yen from reaching a record this year, adding additional intervention risks more criticism from the U.S.  Last week, U.S. House Ways and Means Committee chairman Levin said Japan’s intervention was “deeply disturbing” while Senate Banking Committee Chairman Dodd said Japan violated international accords.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the July coincident index improve to 103.0 from the prior reading of 101.8 while the July leading index improved to 100.0 from 98.2.  Also, August machine tool orders were up 170% y/y.  The Japanese government conducted a major yen-selling intervention last week that traders have estimated as much as ¥1.86 trillion in size.  Details about the size of the intervention will be released on 30 September.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.25% to close at ¥9,602.11.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥84.60 level.   The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥112.55 level and was supported around the ¥111.45 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥132.40 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥84.80 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7061 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7141.  President Obama said Chinese leaders have not done “everything they said would be done” to allow the yuan to increase in value.  The Chinese government countered by saying Obama’s criticism is “unwise and shortsighted.”

 

£

The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5640 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5500 figure.  Data released in the U.K. today saw the August public net sector cash requirement print at £5.8 billion, up from the revised prior reading of -£3.7 billion.  Also, August public sector net borrowing increased to £15.3 billion from the prior reading of £2.0 billion.  Minutes from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s September meeting will be released tomorrow.  MPC member Sentance called for a gradual increase in interest rates.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5320 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8490 level and was supported around the £0.8390 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0075 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0015 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw the August trade balance decline to CHF 570 million from the revised prior reading of CHF 2.84 billion.  Also, the M3 money supply indicator came in at 6.6% y/y.  Swiss National Bank reported its foreign currency holdings fell to CHF 218.1 billion in August.  Last week, Swiss National Bank kept its three-month franc Libor target rate unchanged at 0.25%. SNB Chairman Hildebrand reported the economy is expected to “slow” in the second half of the year.  As expected, the Swiss government last week raised its economic growth forecast for this year and now sees GDP growth of 2.7% in 2010, up from the previous forecast of 1.8% from June.  The government also sees 2011 GDP growth of 1.2%, down from the previous forecast of 1.6%.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0290 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3210 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5530 level.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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