Wednesday September 22, 2010 - 03:35:06 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 22-Sep-2010 - 0333 GMT
The US Equities ended mixed yesterday after the Fed decided against taking any bold steps immediatley. The Dow (10761.03) was up 0.07% and the S&P 500 (1139.78) was down 0.26%. The Dow is still near the 10750 level and a strong break above this may take it towards 11000 in the coming weeks.
The Asian Equities are trading higher today. The Nikkei (9605.12) is flat over stronger Yen and may face some immediate Resistance from the 20-MA on the weekly close chart, which may bring it down towards 9300-400 in the coming days. Please click on the following link to see the 20-MA Resistance: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nikkeima.shtml#ma
The Shanghai (2591.55) is closed till Friday. In India, the Sensex (20001.55) and the Nifty (6009.05) were up 0.48% following strong global sentiments yesterday. The Sensex and the Nifty have closed above the important levels of 20,000 and 6,000 and may see some correction in the coming sessions.
Crude (75.08) has come off from yesterday's high of 76.37. The Fed's statement on slow economic recovery and concerns on high inventories kept the price lower although the dollar traded weak. However, significant Support is seen in 74-73 region which if holds might take the price higher in the coming days.
Gold (1287.80) is retaining its strength and has risen above the Resistance at 1280. The overall outlook continues to remain bullish for a rise towards 1320-50 in the coming weeks.
Major walloping for the Dollar overnight.
The Euro (1.3294) is now within kissing distance of the Aug high of 1.3334. The Pound (1.5650) also managed to recoup almost all its losses of the last two days, rising from yesterday's low near 1.5504. Dollar-Yen (84.92) has also fallen below 85.00, dipping to a low of 84.77 today. Fear of BOJ intervention should lend Support to this pair. Dollar-Swiss (0.9967) has also fallen below 1.0 all over again. The Aussie (0.9567) has seen a high of 0.9583, but could be ripening for profit-taking.
The Dollar Index (80.32) has broken below its 81.25-00 support, seeing an ugly fall today. The ADXY is also trading very strong, at 113.89, near a very significant mult-year trendline resistance.
Among the Emerging currencies, the Sing Dollar (1.3279) has strengthened beyond 1.33, the strongest level since 1996, from way before the Asian crisis. The Korean Won (1160.10) has also gained a bit, but not much. The Brazilian Real (1.7245) has weakened further, ahead of the Petrobras issue closing tomorrow, possibly on continued intervention by the central bank. The Yuan has gained further to 6.6967, a rise of 1.69% since 6.8055 on 02-Sep.
Dollar-Rupee had closed at 45.67 yesterday. Expect a range of 45.50-90 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 5 bps and 16 bps to quote at 0.41% and 2.54% respectively.
08:30 GMT UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 1-0-8...Previous 1-0-8
CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.6%...Previous 1.6%
US July Housing Starts
...Actual 0.60 Mln...Previous 0.55 Mln
US FOMC Interest Rate
...Actual <0.25%...Previous <0.25
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