Monday April 11, 2005 - 09:23:41 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 11/4/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil closed around $56 yesterday, almost unchanged. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.460, slipping below 10.500 again.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2920 level. We had interesting price action on Friday. After testing again the 1.28 level (near the 200-day simple moving average magnet level), the single currency surged in late session action above 1.29, escaping for the second time the tough magnet test. However, we had the confirmation of the bearish cross by the shorter moving averages, proving the current momentum on the pair as bearish. It is important to highlight the fact that the long uptrend starting in 2002 can be considered as broken now, and unless the pair regains 1.31 again, the test of the 200-day simple moving average looks as the last support for the pair.
Moving averages overview: EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2786. Pair has a bearish cross confirmed today.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral – no signal (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8845 level. Similar price action in the british pound against the USD. After declining below 1.87 in early trading, pair surged over 100 pips to close almost unchanged for the last 2 days, and just shy of the 20-day moving average. We have the confirmation of the bearish cross by the shorter moving averages, but the indicators don’t follow that direction and are neutral on the pair. I think it is better to stay aside on the pair for now.
Moving averages overview: GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8597. Pair confirms today the bearish cross now from the short moving averages.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral – no signal (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Negative.
Usd/Chf: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1970 level. Price action is still unable to break and consolidate above the 200-day moving average. On Friday we were above that level in the major part of the session, but were unable to close at that level and slipped back down. If that level is not quickly broken back on the upside, we will consider that as a very hostile sign for the greenback, and further weakness won’t be ruled out in future analysis. Though shorter moving averages are coming closer to the big magnet, looking poised for a very bullish cross, price action must be supportive to give enough strength to the move. Indicators are not very supportive at the moment.
Moving averages overview: USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2059. Pair has confirmed a bullish moving averages cross.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): USD Neutral - no signal – (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative.
Eur/Gbp: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6865 level. Holding the key 0.6850 level for now, easing the bearish momentum. It looks rangebound for now, therefore staying aside of trading it looks as the best decision.
Moving averages overview: pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6871 today. Pair is still on a bullish cross by the 2 moving averages.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1: Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2: Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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