***Economic data*** - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 17th: -1.4% v -8.9% prior - (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Consumer Confidence: 121.7 v 120.8 prior - (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Interest Rate Decision: Maintained Deposit Rates at 2.00% - (CA) Canada Aug Leading Indicators M/M: 0.5% v 0.3%e - (CA) Canada July Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v 0.6%e; Less Autos M/M: -0.4% v 0.4%e - (BE) Belgium Sept Business Confidence: -3.4 v -5.1e - (BR) Brazil Aug Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 1.58T v $1,55T prior - (MX) Mexico Q2 Aggregate Supply & Demand: 12.8% v 12.2%e - (US) July House Price Index M/M: -0.5% v -0.2%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Advanced Consumer Confidence: -11 v -10e - (US) DOE weekly Energy Inventories: CRUDE: +970K V -1.5ME; GASOLINE: +1.6M V 0.0E; DISTILLATE: +345K V 0.0E; UTILIZATION: 87.8 % V 87.0%E
- Equity trading is choppy this morning as investors digest yesterday's FOMC decision. Despite Fed's leaving the door open to the possibility of more quantitative easing, traders are pausing the recent equity rally and pushing funds into treasuries and gold. All three leading US indices are in the red, while the dollar has seen extended weakness against the major pairs. Government bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic are under pressure. Demand is particularly strong for US and UK government paper as both countries appear headed down the quantitative easing path once again. The US 10-year yield has slipped back towards 2.5% while the 10-year GILT yield has dipped below 3%. Gold crept to fresh all-time highs, to within a few bucks of the $1,300 level, as talk of competitive currency devaluation gains momentum. Chinese Premier Wen is in the US for the UN General Assembly. In comments ahead of his meeting with President Obama tomorrow, Wen "conceded" that there is a trade imbalance between US and China but said the imbalance is "narrowing."
- In earnings news, Adobe is getting crushed this morning after the firm offered weak guidance for is Q4 and got multiple analyst downgrades, despite coming in a bit ahead of estimates in its Q3 report. General Mills reported solidly in line results for their Q1 and reaffirmed the company's full year outlook. Note that the company's earnings were well below last year's Q1. Shares of GIS are up nearly 3%, while competitor Kellogg is up as well. Carmax is up 7% after roundly beating earnings expectations in its Q2, with both earnings and revenue coming in at their highest levels in years. Jefferies is down nearly 8% after missed targets in its Q3 report. Companies have begun offering pre-earnings season guidance and profit warnings. Following plenty of cautious comments out of major chip makers over recent days, semi name PMC-Sierra has cut its Q3 revenue guidance. PMCS is down 8%. In other news, Ebay is down 5% after a key executive left the firm (for personal reasons), although the firm took the opportunity to guide to the high end of its prior Q3 range.
- The dollar weakened considerably in the early New York session as fallout from the FOMC decision continued this morning, with widespread chatter pointing the finger at selling by Asian names, possibly a sovereign wealth fund. EUR/USD is now at five-month highs; the cross was around 1.3300 for most of the European session before push out to test just below 1.3450. Tokyo cannot be very happy about the continued dovish Fed stance, as the weakening dollar is causing trouble for the Japanese currency intervention campaign. USD/JPY remained below the key 85 level during the Asian and European sessions and has fallen below 84.50 in US trading. Investors are on watch for more intervention to stem yen strength, although as of yet there has been no sign of the BoJ in the market. Cable has come off its post-FOMC highs after the minutes from the Sept 9th meeting, with investors eying comments indicating that some members saw an increased likelihood of more stimulus spending.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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