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Wednesday September 22, 2010 - 19:43:04 GMT
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E-mini S&P Support Beginning to Erode

Support in the December E-mini S&P 500 is beginning to erode as investors begin to take profits following the recent rally from 1032.50. The lack of follow-through to the upside and the subsequent sell-off following Tuesday late afternoon surge is weighing on the market today.

The catalyst behind today’s weakness is lower technology and banking stocks, but the main reason for the decline has to be the Fed’s assessment of the economy.

Tuesday’s Fed monetary policy statement made investors face the reality of the situation that there is still a lot of negative news in the economy. In its statement, the Fed hinted that it is gearing up for another round of economic stimulus because the economy was not moving forward at a suitable pace.

This assessment of the economy may have made investors feel that the recent rally was too optimistic given current economic conditions.

On Tuesday, the E-mini S&P 500 made a closing price reversal top on the daily chart. Overnight this pattern was confirmed, suggesting that a sharp break was in the works.

This type of pattern usually suggests the start of a 2 to 3 day break with 50% of the last rally its next objective. Based on the range of 1032.50 to 1044.00, this retracement level is 1088.25.

The break may appear labored at first, however, as the market has to chew through a Fibonacci level at 1128.00 and a pair of old tops at 1124.50 and 1122.00. Once these levels are cleared, minor points like last week’s close at 1119.75 and this week’s low at 1117.00 are likely to be taken out fairly easily, taking the market to the uptrending Gann angle at 1008.50.

Fundamentally and technically the equity markets appear stubbornly weak, but if sellers can’t exert enough pressure to break through the old resistance/new support levels, then we could be looking at a number of days of sideways trading.

 

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