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Thursday September 23, 2010 - 10:30:23 GMT
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European Market Update: European peripherals widen on weak PMI data and renewed banking concerns (TTN)

Thursday, September 23, 2010 6:11:51 AM

 European Market Update: European peripherals widen on weak PMI data and renewed banking concerns


***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Weekly Primary Articles WPI Y/Y: 16.8% v 16.2% prior; Food Articles WPI: 15.5% v 15.1% prior
- (FR) France Sept Business Confidence: 98 v 98e
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex reserves w/e Sept 17 $481.3B V $475.7B prior
- (FR) France Sept Prelim PMI Manufacturing: 55.4 v 55.0E; PMI Services: 58.8 v 60e
- (GE) Germany Sept Advanced PMI manufacturing: 55.3 v 57.6e; PMI services: 54.6 v 57.2e
- (NV) Netherlands Q2 Final
GDP Q/Q: 1.0% v 0.9%E; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1% prior
- (EU) Eurozone Sept Adv PMI Manufacturing: 53.6 v 54.5e, PMI Services: 53.6 v 55.5e, PMI Composite: 53.8 v 55.7e
- (UK) August BBA Loans for House Purchase: 31.8K V 34KE (lowest since April 2009)

- (TT) Taiwan Aug Unemployment rate: 5.1% v 5.1%E
- (TT) Taiwan Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: 23.4% v 21.6%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 6.3% v 8.8%e
- (IT) Italy Aug Non EU Trade Balance Y/Y: -€2.1B v -€880M prior
- (IR) Ireland Q2 GDP Q/Q: -1.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -0.9% prior
- (IR) Ireland Q2 Current Account Balance: -1.14B v -1.62B prior

Fixed Income:
- (UK) DMO Sells £550M in 1.25% 2027 Gilts; avg yield 0.67% v 0.87% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.2x v 1.9x prior
- (IR) Ireland Sells Total €400M in Feb and April 2011 T-bills v Up to €500M indicated
- (HU) Hungary sells total of HUF55B in 2014, 2016 and 2020 bonds
- (SW) Sweden sells SEK750M in 0.5% index-linked 2017 bonds; avg yield at 0.43%


- As of 06:07 FTSE100 -0.68%, CAC40 -0.90%, DAX -0.62%
European equities extended their losses for the third day as European debt concerns and weaker than expected PMI data increased investors' concern on Europe's economic recovery. Banks, such as Credit Suisse and Bank of Ireland, and miners were leading the fall. Dutch name DSM [DSM.NV] was up 1.2% at the open after company's update as it affirmed its 2010 outlook.
UK pub owner Mitchells and Butler [MAB.UK] reported an increase of 9% in SSS for the 9 weeks period despite a challenged UK recovery. British Airways [BA.UK] and Iberia [IBLA.SP] clear the last hurdle to their $8B merger as Iberia stated that it would not exercise walk out clause in British Airways merger over pension deficit. Iberia agreed on British Airways' plan to reduce deficit. Swiss human resources firm Adecco [ADEN.SZ] reaffirmed its mid-term targets and noted that there was no sign of slowdown. Shares opened 3% but are currently trading in the red following the SMI weakness.

- (EU) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) Regling: Certain that euro will survive
- (GE) Markit comments on Sept German PMI data: Notes Germany's private sector ended Q3 with a larger than expected slowdown
- (GE) German Econ Min Schaeuble: Germany 2010 economy to expand more than 2.5%
- (GE) German Adhesives Industry: Sees 2010 industry growth at 6%; Notes concerns about raw materials prices.
- (IN) India Fin Min Mukherjee: FY11 Economy to grow more than 8.5%
- (IR) Ireland's Junior Min Calleary: Scale of Irish public debt cannot be overstated
- (UK) BoE's Dale: UK faces substantial headwinds from fiscal tightening and lack of lending from banks

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- After several days of light economic data, markets were anticipating the PMI figures from Germany, France and Eurozone which all came in below expectations (apart from French PMI manufacturing). Reported data signal the much feared economic slowdown in
Europe which renewed pessimism and risk aversion; however it is worth noting that the data was well above the 50 point level implying that there is no double dip. The specter of European debt is well alive in the markets with the latest news out of Ireland where the Fin Minister gave yet the strongest indication that the Anglo Irish riskiest lenders may not be able to get their money back. EUR/USD slipped below 1.3350, unable to sustain the 1.3400 level seen in the earlier part of the session. Cable continued to trade in the 1.56 range as dollar weakness persisted and European equities slipped into negative territory. Sterling was soft against the Euro as UK mortgage approvals came below the expectations and was the lowest readings since April 2009. USD/CHF was up from yesterday's 2 and half year low of 0.9834 but is struggling reach parity and is currently trading at 0.9881 which is below the lows of November 2009 and post-G7 2008
European spreads widened on PMI reports and the Irish spread hit a record high of 420 bps. Bunds regained losses after the weak German PMI. Gilts were also higher after the
UK mortgage approvals figures but are underperforming bunds.

- In the Papers-Geopolitical
Following a ten-day strike by truck drivers in
Greece, the government pushed through reform measures on Wednesday liberalizing various service sectors including trucking as part of the €110B package agreement with the EU/IMF. According to the Financial Times, the new law will eventually reduce nominal trucking license fees, lift caps on the number of licenses, and allow the creation of domestic transport companies. The Greek Transport Minister warned if walkouts continue past Wednesday, the sector will be liberalized immediately.
Irish Finance Minister Lenihan said there will pain ahead for Anglo Irish Bank bondholders. Commenting in the Irish Examiner, the Finance Minister hinted that the riskiest lenders to the bank may not be able to get all their money back. There is currently €1.7B worth of dated subordinated risky bonds on Anglos books. These are valued at less than 30% of what they represent under the guarantee.
Markit commented on September German PMI data noting that
Germany's private sector ended the third quarter with a larger than expected slowdown. The output growth declined to the lowest level since January. The decline in manufacturing PMI is partially attributable to slower export growth.
In the Wall Street Journal, German Foreign Minister Westerwelle stated that he wanted the European Union to step up membership discussions with
Turkey. The German official believes the response should be positive, reflecting Turkey's most recent political reforms.

- Irish bond spreads hit record wide levels on renewed concerns about the banking sector.
- Equities continuing to seek weakness following the recent Fed decision.

*** Looking ahead***
- 7:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Repo Rate unchanged at the current 0.75% level
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.0e% v 6.9% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 450Ke v 450K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.473Ke v 4.485M prior
- 9:30/10:30 (US) Weekly stats for Commercial Paper outstanding
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Preliminary Trade Balance: -600Me v -1.0B prior-
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Unemployment Rate: 5.65%e v 5.70% prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Leading Indicators: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Existing Home Sales: 4.10Me v 3.83M prior
- 10:30 (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories



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