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Friday September 24, 2010 - 10:23:00 GMT
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European Market Update: Market initially reacts positively to German IFO data, but sovereign concerns persist (TTN)

Friday, September 24, 2010 6:20:18 AM

 (EU) European Market Update: Market initially reacts positively to German IFO data, but sovereign concerns persist


***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q2 Final
GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%E; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%E
- (RU) Russia Money Supply w/e Sept 14th (RUB): 5.24T v 5.17T prior
- (GE) Germany Aug Import Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.7%e
- (FR) France Q2 Wages Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.7% prior
- (AS) Austria July Industrial Production M/M: +0.3% V -0.6% PRIOR; Y/Y: 6.8% V 5.7% PRIOR
- (IT) Italy Jun Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 0.0%e
- (GE) Germany Sept IFO Business Climate: 106.8 V 106.4E; Current Assessment: 109.7 V 108.7E
- (PD) Poland Aug Retail Sales M/M: -1.6% V -2.8%E; Y/Y: 6.6% V 5.3%E
- (PD) Poland Aug Unemployment Rate: 11.3 % V 11.3%E
- (HK) Hong Kong Q1 Current Account: $6.4B v $26.3B prior; Overall balance of payments (bop): $5.5B V $20.2B prior
- (IR) Ireland July Trade Balance: €4.2B v €3.2B prior

Fixed Income:
- India sells INR110B in bonds as expected


- As of 06:15 FTSE100 -0.48%, DAX -0.60%, CAC40 -0.61%
- The good IFO number failed to take out major European bourses out of negative territory which extended losses for the fourth day in a row as miners were among the big losers in the session.
- Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK] fell 2% after UBS downgraded the stock to sell after stock's outperformance and UBS's cautious stance on copper. UBS also downgraded
Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] which is trading down by 2.8%. Merck KGaa [MRK.GE] dropped by 8% after the European Medicines Agency issued a negative opinion for its Cladribine tablets. Gamesa Corp [GAM.SP] also lost 3.1% after BBVA decided to sell its 5.6% stake in the company at €5.13/shr
- In M&A news, as expected KNOC declared its f 1,800p/shr to acquire Dana [DNX.UK] to be wholly unconditional or hostile. CSG Systems entered into agreement to acquire Intec Telecom for 72.p/shr in cash (44% premium at the close of July 22nd); transaction valued at £236.7M


- (CH) China's NDRC: Food prices to remain stable; expects grain prices to continue to rise at a moderate rate
- (FR) France Finance Min Lagarde: Sees Q3 growth between 0.3-0.7%
- (GE) German Dep Fin Min : Sees 2010
GDP likely about 3%; Upswing in the economy is not only export driven, points to stable consumption developments
- (GE) IFO's Abberger: Now entering a different phase of upswing and losing some pace; Exported oriented firms have a bit more critical view due to developments in both the US and China.
- (GE) IFO's Nerb: Exports continuing to grow though at more moderate rate; Recovery is still very robust; Soverign debt crisis is a risk; Does not see risk of economic upswing breaking up.
- (GE) Former German Fin Min Steinbrueck: Euro will never be in danger
- (HU) Hungary Central Bank Gov Simor: Dropping IMF funding is justifiable
- (IR) Ireland Debt Agency chief: Not concerned over daily swings in bond spreads; Events surrounding Portugal market and negative Irish
GDP news pushed out Irish spreads yesterday; Market concerns over funding challenges of Irish banks similar to hype regarding millennium bug.
- (IR) Ireland Debt Agency CEO Corrigan: Essential for NAMA to get assets sales as soon as possible
- (JP) BoJ: No comment on FX intervention
- (RU) Russia Central Bank Chief Ignatyev: Net Jan-Aug Capital Outflow at $12B; Current account surplus shrunk last 3 months; Recent ruble currency weakness due to falling current account surplus and speculation
- (UK) UK Independent Banking Commission Report on Banking Sector: Options include separation of retail and investment banking units (as expected)
- (UK) British Banking Association (
BBA): Welcomes the independent commission on banking paper; There is room fo constructive solutions concerning the commission report on banking.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Rumors over another BoJ intervention and a possible resignation of BoJ's Governor Shirakawa faded away during the European session. This time,
Japan's officials denied or declined to comment on the yen spike and if there had been an intervention. Furthermore, Shirakawa officially denied resignation rumors and investors started to price out speculation and dollar dropped and is currently trading around the 84.43 level against the yen. The main data from Europe was the German IFO which came in better than expected which fuelled EUR/USD rally as Euro tested the 1.34 level. The trading has been volatile as the good IFO number did not sweep away concerns over European debts. Cable continued to be stable in the 1.56 range
Gilts were lower during the session and continued to underperform Bunds, which declined further over the better-than-expected IFO number. However, peripheral spreads are higher with the Portuguese spread hitting new highs at 409 bps.

In the Papers-Geopolitical
- The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard commented on concerns related to
Ireland's banking system and growth prospects. Though Ireland extended its bank guarantee scheme for an additional three months, the subordinated debt will not be covered. Note that Bank of Ireland has about €5.3B in subordinated debt, with AIB has about €4.4B.
Ireland's slower than expected growth could make the country's debt situation worsen and cause the government to implement further austerity measures. The article points out that the level of credit default swaps for Irish banks are similar to those seen for banks in Iceland prior to its default in 2008. In terms of Ireland's growth prospects, the country's Q2 economy contracted by 1.2% making it the first country since the Great Recession to face a double-dip downturn.
Portugal's Minister of the Presidency Pereira made comments saying that the minority government will not be able to govern if it does not get approval for its budget for next year. On September 17th, the Portugal opposition party, the Social Democrats, was not expected to support cuts to tax deductions for health are education costs. The minority Socialist government would need the support of the other parties to pass its 2011 budget. According to the media reports, the Social Democrats have enough votes to provide the government with the support it needs to approve the plan.

- Equity markets were unable to hold post German IFO gains
- Peripheral EU bond spreads continue to wide, despite gains in the EUR/USD
- USD/JPY gives back gains seen in Asia after Japan did not comment on any possible intervention and as BoJ GoV Shirakawa denied that he is planning to resign.
- Spot Gold hits new record high jst below $1,300/oz, silver hits levels not seen since late 1980
- Gold priced in yen moves to highest level since June.

*** Looking ahead***
- 8:30 (US) Aug Durable Goods Orders: -1.0%e v 0.3% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: 1.0 v -3.8% prior
- 9:30 (TU) Turkey Sept Industrial Confidence: No est v 111 prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 73.4% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions: Expected to maintaint the Overnight Rate unchanged at the current 4.5% level
- 10:00 (US) Aug New Home Sales: 295Ke v 276K prior
- 12:00 (FR) France Aug Net Change in Jobseekers: -5.0Ke v -14.4K prior; Net Change Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.68M
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 8.2%e v 7.6% prior


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