***Economic data*** - (US) Aug Durable Goods Orders: -1.0%e v 0.3% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: 1.0 v -3.8% prior - (TU) Turkey Sept Industrial Confidence: No est v 111 prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 73.4% prior - (MX) Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions: Expected to maintaint the Overnight Rate unchanged at the current 4.5% level - (US) Aug New Home Sales: 295Ke v 276K prior
- Investors' risk appetite is ravenous this morning sparking speculation of large asset allocation trades. With risk on, the dollar is heading lower to the benefit of the usual major FX pairs. Gold is just below fresh all-time highs of $1,300 while crude is above $76. There has been much focus on the revisions to the July durables data: some analysts believe that with the revisions, today's better data and assumed normal seasonal increase in September, Q3 GDP could be quite strong. In a related comment, Appaloosa's David Tepper called the current market situation a no lose situation for equities. By Tepper's reasoning, if the economy improves, stocks go up, while if the economy sours, the Fed will likely open the liquidity floodgates with QE2 (the so-called Bernanke put). Government bond prices are moving lower pushing rates up. The US 10-year is now more than 10 basis points off yesterday's intraday lows below 2.5%, while the UK 10-Gilt has popped back above 3%.
- In equities, all 30 DJIA components opened higher this morning, with both HPQ and BA up nearly 4% on the risk on theme. Nike is up 4.5% after beating earnings expectations, although executives did warn that commodity costs would pressure margins moving forward. Homebuilders are all higher, although KB Homes is well off its highs of the morning, at around +2%. The company drastically narrowed its Q3 loss against expectations and beat revenue assumptions. In the firm's quarterly metrics were some bad signs, including a net new homes number that was almost half the amount from its Q2, plus a much smaller backlog. In other movers, Terex is up almost 6% on a proposed amendment to its standing credit agreements. Shares of Dollar Thrifty are down 3% after Hertz refrained from raising its $50.25/shr offer to meet Avis's improved $53/shr offer.
- With risk on the euro is heading even higher this morning, with EUR/USD at five-month highs around 1.3470. Note that while the good German September IFO is aiding euro strength, peripheral debt worries are a minor theme. The Spanish government approved a much reduced 2011 budget that cuts spending by 16% and hikes taxes on the rich. The bill goes to parliament next week. In neighboring Portugal, the opposition Social Democrats have held up passage of an austerity budget, sending the spread between Portugal and German 10-yr debt higher. Spreads on Irish 10-year debt remain elevated after yesterday's Anglo Irish debt default dustup, even as govt officials brushed off concerns. USD/JPY is back at its pre-intervention lows near 84.30 following an apparent intervention episode (during which the cross pushed out to 85.40), although Japanese govt officials refused to confirm or deny they were in markets.
***Looking Ahead*** - (FR) France Aug Net Change in Jobseekers: -5.0Ke v -14.4K prior; Net Change Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.68M - (AR) Argentina Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 8.2%e v 7.6% prior
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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