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Monday September 27, 2010 - 12:41:37 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the day : 27-Sep-2010 - 1230 GMT

USD/CHF @ 0.9824/27…Bearish…Sell rallies
R: 0.9900 / 1.0000 / 1.0050
S: 0.9800 / 0.9751 / 0.9650

Dollar-Swiss moved up but is currently trading below 0.9850. The pair may see some dip towards 0.9800-775 followed by another up move towards 0.9875-900 where selling may again be considered for a down move towards 0.9750-00 in a couple of days. However, there are chances that the pair may not see an up-move towards 0.9900 at all. Still, for trading purposes we would prefer getting in at levels near 0.9900-50, which will be safe as against getting in at current levels.

Overall, Dollar-Swiss has been trading near the important Support at 0.9850. The pair has fallen below the strong Support at 1.0050 and we see less chances of a rise on the pair in the coming days; this will be confirmed on a monthly close below 0.9850. A break below 0.9850 may see some strong down move on the pair towards 0.9650 or even 0.9400 in the coming weeks/months.
 GBP/USD @ 1.5862/65…Bullish
R: 1.5950-60 / 1.6000 / 1.6111
S: 1.5711 / 1.5635

Cable has broken above the Resistance at 1.5635, which was holding from the past few weeks. We may now see the pair move up strongly towards 1.5970-6000 in a couple of days. The pair has been moving up continuously since past 4 days and we may see this up-trend continue till the pair touches 1.5950-6000, a strong break above which will take the pair higher towards 1.63-64 in the coming weeks. However, there are chances that the pair may see some fall towards 1.58-57 after reaching 1.5950-60 where we may consider buying for an eventual rise on the pair past 1.60 in the coming days/weeks.

The pair is forming a strong double bottom on the monthly charts, which will be confirmed on a rise past 1.67-68, which may be seen next month.

 AUD/USD @ 0.9611/13…Mixed
R: 0.9650 / 0.9700 / 0.9849
S: 0.9534 / 0.9475 / 0.9375

Aussie has been moving in a small range of 0.9575-625 since the Asian session today. There are chances of some dip on the pair, which may be seen either immediately or after some up-move on the pair in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow. The pair is near an important Channel Resistance in the 0.9650-70 region on the daily and 4-hourly charts which has not been broken since a week now and there are chances of a sideways movement on the pair in the region of 0.9550-700 in the coming sessions before any significant movement is seen on the pair. For trading purposes, we will prefer staying out of the markets till we see some more clarity on the pair.

Please note that the pair has been on a strong up-move but has not been able to break above the Resistance at 0.9650-700 region and we would have to wait and watch whether that Resistance is honoured or broken this week. A strong break above 0.9650 may take the pair towards 0.9800-50 or even 1.00 in the coming weeks/months. However, a failure to break above 0.9650 may see some sideways movement on the pair for a couple of months.

Happy Trading!


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