also remember the Wall Street Journal article that rehashed the entire regionâ€™s
banking problems and the rather large potential for the eurozone economies to
experience another round of turmoil post stress tests. The euroâ€™s knee-jerk
reaction was not good; but it needed very little time to shake off the dirt and
begin a strong move higher.
Moodyâ€™s is sure to not let the Irish banking issue go to rest; and The Wall Street Journal is digging in
again, implying that itâ€™s only a matter of time before investorâ€™s mood changes
on the eurozone.
Irishâ€™s bank debt was cut and theyâ€™ve been put on watch for further potential
downgrades. The problem is the Irish government can seem to provide a
sufficient back-stop for the bank. And if thatâ€™s going to be the MO, itâ€™s not a
good sign for other banks or other countriesâ€™ banks in similar positions. And
there are many.
The Wall Street Journal is asking whether the ECB has
succeeded or can succeed in keeping the eurozone â€“ the common currency â€“
together. Thereâ€™s a central bank for the zone, there are treaties and contracts
between members, but thereâ€™s no central authority that can keep member
governments in line when it comes to fiscal policy. That seems to be accepted
as the biggest problem still facing the eurozone; it is apparently the cause
for governments spending beyond their means and the limits set out in the
argue that thereâ€™s more than just the absence of a central power that has
caused imbalances within the zone. But weâ€™ve done that before.
excerpt from the WSJ:
package of EU measures has helped quell the panic. But four months later, the
root causes of the Greek crisis remain: There is no central authority to even
coordinate national tax-and-spending policies.
past month, financial markets have turned their sights on Ireland and Portugal.
Doubts remain over the solvency of banks on Europe's stricken fringe. That
leaves them dependent on Mr. Trichet's largesse, in the form of
"temporary" lending facilities introduced by the ECB when the crisis
Mr. Trichet's assurances that the bond-buying program is a stop-gap, it not
only continues but has also increased in recent weeksâ€”with no end in sight.â€ť
The ECB has
a tough job trying to act in a way thatâ€™s supportive, or at least considerate,
of all its members while also trying to maintain a modicum of financial
credibility. Itâ€™s easy when everyone is happy, everyoneâ€™s GDP is pointing in
the right direction, and the global economy is moving along swimmingly. That is
still not the case.
this being front and center for everyone to see, the euro has barely blushed
(thanks FOMC!)Not only has the euro
broken decisively above its 200-day moving average, but it breached chart
resistance, came back and tested, and then bounced strong on Friday.
jump on this opportunity to get long EURUSD? EURUSD price action has not been
fazed by a steady stream of typically bad eurozone news. When such a dynamic is
in play, when bad news is brushed aside, any good news can have an increasingly
more positive impact.
stocks signal that risk appetite is on, we think it makes sense to have some
long exposure to the euro. If this move looks to have become tired out, we
wonâ€™t sit around. The right (or wrong) combination of major global macro risks
can still turn around the markets on a dime. This is why we will keep a
short-leash on EURUSD.
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