User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday April 11, 2005 - 21:21:47 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Dollar Weakens As Market Expects Higher Trade Deficit

DailyFX Fundamentals 04-11-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Weakens As Market Expects Higher Trade Deficit
· Oil Prices Recede But Gasoline Prices At New High
· Japanese Yen Rebounds On Stronger Trade Data

EURUSD

The US dollar is weaker ahead of tomorrow’s trade balance report. The greenback has rallied significantly over the past three weeks with the market fully pricing in an aggressive tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve. From here on forward, the dollar will have to earn its stripes and tomorrow will be its first opportunity to do so (more in dollar section). The euro on the other hand rebounds in the face of broad based deterioration in French industrial production and more speculation that France may reject the revised European Constitution on May 29th. The surprisingly deep contraction in industrial production is a testament to the widespread impact of high oil prices across the globe. France is a net oil importer with most of its imports coming from Norway, Saudi Arabia, the UK and Russia. Although the euro rallied in the month of February, it fell 3% against the Norwegian Krona during the same period. The strength of the euro and rising oil prices is a double blow for an already fragile economy. Meanwhile, France’s referendum on the EU constitution scheduled for May 29th continues to be the talk of the town. The latest polls indicate that the French “no” camp is clearly taking the lead. If France rejects the referendum, the knee-jerk impact would certainly be a sell-off in the euro because it confirms that the “euro” project continues to go downhill. Although it is nearly impossible that the members of Eurozone will breakup and go back to their individual currencies, this does reduce the incentive for Asian central banks to diversify into the euro.

USDCHF

The dollar faces two major events risks tomorrow – namely the US trade balance report and the minutes from the March 22 FOMC meeting. The trade balance is expected to widen during the month of February, thanks to a 9.5% rise in oil prices during the same month. Textile imports from China are also expected to have a big impact on the trade balance. The abolition of textile quotas at the beginning of this year quadrupled clothing exports to China over the past few months. Although oil prices have retraced over the past week, gasoline prices are at record highs, which means that consumers are still strapped. In fact, they are even worse off now than when oil price were rising while gasoline prices remained relatively steady. The whole concern around oil prices back then was centered upon the impact on consumer spending. With a national average price of $2.29 per gallon for the regular grade of gas, many companies especially those in transportation sectors have had to tack on extra charges to deal with the higher prices. Speaking of inflation, the market will be looking to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting for more clarity on the Fed’s inflation stance. If you recall, the March meeting was the meeting that catapulted the sharp rise in the dollar – although the Fed left in the phrase measured, they upgraded its entire statement, talking about increasing inflation risks and stronger economic growth. The market will continue to read into the report about whether higher prices are here to stay or if they have simply been gyrating with oil prices.

GBPUSD

A slew of economic releases failed to move the pound in either direction on Monday. First on the list was the PPI data, which showed that the cost of raw materials used by British factories had risen at a record annual pace of 11.4% in March, pulled higher by rising oil prices. The news added to concerns that consumer-price inflation may accelerate amidst the low economic growth environment, though there has not yet been substantial proof that these higher prices are being passed on to consumers. The cost of goods leaving British factories rose by a much tamer 0.6% on the month, translating into an annual increase of 2.8%. The next order of business concerned the UK Trade Deficit, which narrowed from £5174M to £4809M in February after January’s surprisingly wide gap. The change was essentially due to a marked fall in imported goods from non-European countries, while the surplus generated in traded services stayed stable. Economists had correctly forecasted most of the contraction. The housing market was also addressed by today’s economic releases, with the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister reporting a larger-than-expected 10.5% annual rise in house prices in February. Interest rates have now remained unchanged for eight months, but the Bank of England has been reluctant to raise interest rates because of the bleak outlook for global demand. The February Leading Indicator Index offered a modicum of hope for the UK economy, at least, with an improvement from 134.3 to 135.2 on a higher volume of expected output.

USDJPY

The dollar gave back some of its gains against the Japanese yen as speculative short positions hit a 4 year high on the IMM. Following the strong breakout in USDJPY, traders have rushed to take advantage of what may be a new trend. However, with short yen positioning at such extreme levels, it leads us to question if there are any USDJPY buyers left in the market. Overnight, the yen received some support from a stronger current account surplus. Imports rose strongly once again, which is undoubtedly related to oil. Pressure on China to revalue their currency is also helping to boost the yen. The US Senate is trying to push through a so-called China Currency Bill that would levy 27.5% tariffs on all Chinese goods sold within the US if the country does not revalue within 180 days of the enactment. The pressure is on for China to revalue their currency and US Senators are tired of waiting and have decided to take measures into their own hands. German Finance Minister Eichel said this morning that China is putting some serious thought into their currency regime. In our opinion, China is always putting serious thought into the revaluation issue and we are not sure whether the latest action by the US Senate will be enough to force China to move earlier than they had probably wanted. The passing of an amendment does not mean that it becomes a law, especially since this could have political ramifications for the US.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105