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Tuesday April 12, 2005 - 00:52:21 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 12th April 2005

Price: 1.2975

Resistance: 1.2984 ... 1.3002 ... 1.3031 ... 1.3050
Support....: 1.2940 ... 1.2907 ... 1.2881 ... 1.2851

Bias: We feel that while 1.2984-00 caps that the main risk is for losses to the 1.2881-1.2907 area before correcting

Bullish: The 1.2998 level only saw minor breach by 4 pips and we view this as an intermediate peak. Thus a bullish stance requires some care but we do expect that once 1.2926-42 breaks that we should see price move down to the 1.2881-1.2907 area and consider this a cautious buying opportunity for a correction to the 1.2940-60 area but which should cap. Thus only a move back above 1.3002 would imply gains should extend towards the 1.3050 high and probably 1.3085 which we feel is strong and should cap.

Bearish: The 1.2998 target was broken only by 4 pips and we see this as supporting our view of a larger sideways correction. Thus, on a break of 1.2936-42 we see risk for losses to move down to the 1.2881-1.2907 area. However, we advise caution here since we feel this should cause a pullback. Only directly below 1.2880 would allow losses to dip to the 1.2851 target which should hold else the Dollar's uptrend will resume and we'd look for loss of 1.2800 and down to 1.2748 minimum.



Elliott Wave Comments:

11th April 2005

Recovery from 1.2806 has brought the risk back to a sideways consolidation but given the wave structure since the 1.2855 low appears to be developing in three-wave moves it would suggest an expanded flat triangle. This would have a Wave -c- target at 1.2998 which represents Wave c being 138.2% of Wave a and also where Wave -c- would equal Wave -a-. If this is correct, then 1.2998 should see the end of Wave -c- and should then cause Wave -d- to decline to the 1.2835-45 area. Then, after brief Wave -e- that should remain below 1.2950-60 we would expect Wave [c] to commence lower...

12th April 2005

The 1.3002 high was close enough to the ideal 1.2998 target and we see this as Wave -c- of a larger expanded flat triangle. This should trigger losses to the 1.2850 area in Wave -d- followed by recovery in Wave -e- to complete Wave [b] and thus cause the downtrend to resume in Wave [c] to 1.2668 minimum.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

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