Tuesday September 28, 2010 - 12:04:14 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 28-Sep-2010 - 1203 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD/CHF @ 0.9853/54â€¦Bearishâ€¦Sell rallies
R: 0.9900 / 1.0000 / 1.0050
S: 0.9800 / 0.9751 / 0.9650
On the back of rumours of possible downgrade of Spain, dollar caught a bid. Dollar-Swiss rallied towards 0.9865 only to face fresh bout of selling. Currently the range of 0.9820-0.9870 is holding and we would look to initiate trades on a resolution of the trend.
Our Morning view remains unchanged. "Over the last two trading sessions Dollar-Swiss has been trading in a tight range of 50 pips, 0.9820 to 0.9870. Probability of an advance towards 0.99 handle appears low at this moment. Therefore, though we would prefer to sell on a recovery towards 0.99-950 but we would not like to wait any further if Swiss breaks 0.98. Having spent a full good week below parity, the pair is vulnerable to further price erosion towards 0.9635, March'08 low. Only thing that can provide temporary relief to the pair is the oversold condition prevailing after a near vertical drop in the pair over the month of September."
Limit Sell Order:
Sell USD/CHF 10K at 0.9920, SL 1.0030, TP Open
Stop-loss sell Order:
Sell USD/CHF 10K at 0.9810, SL 0.9875, TP Open
GBP/USD @ 1.5840/42â€¦Bullish
R: 1.5850-80 / 1.6000 / 1.62-6250
S: 1.5750-30 / 1.5635
Broad trend remains positive as long as the cable trades above 1.55. Sell-off in the early European session saw cable touch 1.5777, only to recover later in the afternoon towards 1.5895. Currently it is trading at 1.5833 and we believe the resistance cluster at 1.5850-80 is holding, therefore, for fresh trades, we would recommend either to buy on break above 1.59 or to wait for a corrective move towards 1.5730-50.
AUD/USD @ 0.9611/13â€¦ At key resistance
R: 0.9650 / 0.9700 / 0.9849
S: 0.9570 / 0.9475 / 0.9375
As expected Aussie corrected towards 0.9550 in early European hours and has recovered sharply hence. Being close to a key channel resistance between 0.9650-70, bulls are being cautious. A strong break above 0.97 may take the pair towards 0.9800-50 and even parity in the coming weeks/months.
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