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Tuesday September 28, 2010 - 13:43:51 GMT
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Euro Confirms Daily Closing Price Reversal Top

Overnight the Euro confirmed Monday’s closing price reversal top after it came under selling pressure following a report in The Wall Street Journal that said the U.S. Federal Reserve’s new quantitative-easing program will be smaller than some investors had expected.

 

This triggered a sell-off in the EUR USD as traders pared long positions that they had established to in anticipation of a more aggressive QE package by the Fed.

 

On Monday, the Euro weakened after a surge to the upside amid ongoing worries regarding Irish and Spanish sovereign debt. In moves very similar to those which took place in Greece this spring, “the cost of insuring Irish and other Euro-Zone government debt”, according to Marketwatch.com, “jumped after a S&P credit analyst warned that Ireland could be vulnerable to a further downgrade if the costs of recapitalizing nationalized lender Anglo Irish Bank continued to rise toward the ratings agency’s estimate of 35 billion Euros.”

 

Following the initial follow-through to the downside overnight, the Euro reversed course after the ECB’s Juergen Stark said the central bank was on track to continue phasing out some of the special liquidity measures it had put in place during the height of the financial crisis. In other words, the ECB feels that the economy in the region had strengthened enough to warrant such a withdrawal of liquidity.

 

On Monday, the EUR USD posted a closing price reversal top after Moody’s Investors Service said it cut Anglo Irish Bank’s unguaranteed senior debt to Baa3 from A3, and cut its dated subordinated debt to Caa1 from Ba1.

 

The developing chart pattern suggested a possible top, which was confirmed in the overnight session. Rather than just outright selling the Euro, however, traders should be aware that the pace of the break from the top may be hindered by lingering concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve will engage in quantitative easing.

 

Technically, I had been anticipating a possible top or at the least a technical bounce once the Euro reached the 50% price level of the main 1.1876 to 1.5144 range at 1.3510. The current rally reached 1.3507 before sellers stepped in.

 

Now that the top has been confirmed, the Euro may begin a correction back to 50% of the 1.2644 to 1.3507 range. This price is 1.3075.

 

The technical pattern is clear, but in order for this to come to fruition, it needs the cooperation of a couple of fundamental factors. Sovereign debt concerns are likely to be a bearish driving force, but this news could be negated by bullish economic news from the Euro Zone or more bearish economic news from the U.S.

 

 

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