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Wednesday September 29, 2010 - 15:52:03 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Wednesday, September 29, 2010 11:26:13 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -28 S&P -3.5 NASDAQ -6

***Economic data***
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 24th: -0.8% v -1.4% prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 1.2% v 1.11%e; Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.8%e
- (PD) Poland Central maintained the Base Rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected
- (CA) Canada Aug Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 2.2% v 0.5%e
- (BR) Brazil Aug Nominal Budget Balance (BRL) -10.5B v -10.4Be; Primary Budget Balance: 5.2B v 6.0Be; Net Debt to
GDP Ratio: 41.4% v 41.6%e
- (US) DOE weekly Energy Inventories: Crude: -475K v -250KE; Gasoline: -3.5M v +1Me; Distillate: -1.3M v +250Ke; Utilization: 85.8% v 87.2%e

- With news flow fairly light and little economic data on tap, US equity indices are chopping around in negative territory this morning. The euro continues to rack up consecutive gains against the major pairs despite continued peripheral EU debt concerns, with EUR/USD testing fresh five-month highs above 1.36. Gold made fresh all-time highs just above $1,310, although it is just below this level in mid morning trading. Front-month crude is largely unchanged from yesterday's levels, trading in the $76 handle despite larger than expected draws across all products in today's EIA inventory data. Treasury prices are consolidating recent gains keeping the 10-year yield below 2.5%.

- The leading bank stocks are one source of weakness this morning, following a round of negative analyst commentary. Yesterday on CNBC, banking analyst Meredith Whitney added a new wrinkle to her dim view of the banking industry, warning that fiscal challenges facing US states are a major risk to the economy and said she would "absolutely sell" the regional banks due to issues with state budgets. In addition, she reiterated here very favorable view of card companies MasterCard and Visa. This morning, William Blair lowered estimates on both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Citigroup is an exception, with the bank's shares remaining in positive territory as the US Treasury sells off another chunk of its preferred stock position in the bank.

- In other news, Hewlett Packard offered an initial look at its FY11 guidance at an analyst event yesterday evening, with targets just a bit higher than the Street's expectations. The company confirmed that its new WebOS tablet computer would begin sales in early 2011, and said that HP would take a 17% share in the tablet market by 2013. HPQ is up 2%. Shares of Family Dollar are up 3% on a big new stock repurchase announcement. The firm's Q4 results were mixed, featuring tepid revenue and cautious guidance. Competitor DG is off 2%. Thor Industries is up nearly 14% on very strong earnings on much better margins. Thor said RV sales were up 50% y/y.

- The euro is moving from strength to strength this week as investors spurn the dollar. With Moody's downgrade of Spain's Aaa rating likely imminent, Ireland is facing a gargantuan budget liability for Anglo Irish debt and Portugal's parliament deadlocked over the budget and austerity measures, it seems that investors may really be getting over Europe's peripheral debt crisis. In
Japan, USD/JPY briefly hit its lowest level since the big mid-September intervention, at 83.50. USD/JPY briefly spiked higher on chatter that a think tank report out of London stating the BoJ would try to weaken the JPY via alternative measures other than intervention.

***Looking Ahead***
15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 12.6% prior; Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 37.9% prior


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