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Thursday September 30, 2010 - 20:09:50 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Quiet Quarter-end

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


Quiet Quarter-end

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 30- Well the quarter-end is now finally in the rear-view mirror. Activity slowed dramatically in the New York afternoon. It appeared early that traders were of a disposition to sell the USD Thursday, but both the weekly jobless data and the Chicago PMI were stronger than expected and saw those long EURUSD scramble to reduce their USD shorts, even though equities made a failed attempt a a rally.     

Nevertheless, there has been a seeping realization in the markets that the Fed and government officials are not displeased with the prospect of a lower USD. A lower USD would promote growth and at the present time would not be an issue for inflation. On the other side of the equation, so they should be unconcerned with EUR strength. Furthermore, EUR strength lessens the need for the central bank to restrain monetary policy. 

Japanese saw weak data again with industrial output figures disappointing the markets. The data  came on the heels of a quarterly Tankan Survey (Wed)  that contained forward looking data that were quite weak. Many are saying that 82.00 is the BOJ line in the sand. We will see. Tokyo is putting together an economic stimulus program, and the BOJ is thought to be preparing another round of quantitative ease (QE). It is safe to assume that Tokyo is sitting in the background waiting for an opportune time to pounce. One goal of officials is not be predictable..

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Japanese CPI, household spending and unemployment on Friday. China is closed for a holiday but the official PMI and retail sales data are due. In Europe, the final EZ mfg PMI will be released along with Swiss and U.K. data. EZ unemployment data are also slated. In North America, U.S. Personal income (+ Core PCE)  are due on the open, Later, the University of Michigan sentiment data, Construction spending and the ISM mfg PMI will be released.  

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:36
EUR 1.3622 -5 JPY 113.53 -46 JPY 132.31 29
GBP 1.5876 94 GBP 85.80 -54 CHF 154.89 73
CHF 0.9756 -12 CHF 1.3290 -21 CHF vs.    
JPY 83.34 -31       JPY 85.42 -21

The EURUSD is steady on the day and the GBPUSD is lower. The EURGBP cross is up. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on the U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is steady and EURCHF is up. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is steady and the EURJPY cross is weaker. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:36
CAD 1.0310 -28 AUD 0.9684 2 Gold 1312 2.35
CNY 6.6915 36 NZD 0.7373 8 WTI 77.71 -0.01

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are mixed vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is likely to tighten in October. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed lower. European bourses were lower. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.52%, +3 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           9:36
NIK 9369 -190 DAX 6213 -33 DJIA 10835 20
HSI 22358 -21 FTSE 5540 -29 S&P 1145 2
SSEC 2556 -55 SMI 6287 0 NAS 2377 3
ASX 4583 -62       TSE 12383 27

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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