Friday October 1, 2010 - 03:54:09 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 01-Oct-2010 - 0348 GMT
The US Equities lost opening gains and ended lower yesterday. The markets opened up about 1% on better than expected US GDP figures for Q2 but lost grounds on profit booking. The Dow (10788.05) was down 0.44% and the S&P 500 (1141.20) was down 0.31%. The Dow closed just above the important Resistace (on the monthly charts) at 10770 and while above 10550-600 we may see the markets move up towards 11000 in the coming weeks.
The Asians are trading higher today. The Nikkei (9453.14, up 0.89%) is trading higher on expectations of good numbers from companies for the 3rd quarter and hopes of monetary easing from the BOJ next week. The Shanghai (2655.66) is closed on account of National Day today. In India, the The Sensex (20069.12) and the Nifty (6029.95) closed up about 0.6% on account of robust buying from the FIIs yesterday. The markets may move in the region of 19900-20200 befoew we see any significant move on the upside.
Crude (79.87) has risen sharply breaking above the Resistance at 78 and is now trading just below 80. Less US jobless claims and the political uncertainity in the OPEC memeber Ecuador triggered the price rise yesterday. A break and close above 80 today would be very bullish for Crude which increase the chances of a rise towards 90 in the coming days/weeks. The weekly chart is looking very strong with a strong base formed in 75-70 region.
Gold (1307.40) is continuing to trade above 1300 but not showing much upside mometum on its move above 1300. However, the overall bullish sentiment is intact with strong Support in 1280-70 region.
Dollar is continuing to trade weak. The Euro ( 1.3656) is retaining its strength and might rise towards 1.3700-800 with strong Support in 1.3525-00 region. Dollar-Yen (83.50) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 83.16. The overall picture is still bearish. But the crucial Support at 83.00 is continuing to hold. We will have to wait and watch. The Euro-Yen (114.03) Cross is continuing to trade above 113 and with lack of downside momentum, a rise towards 115-116 is looking likely.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9804) may see some dip towards 0.9750-00 in the coming sessions today. Aussie (0.9692) has honoured the Resistance at 0.9700 an may fall towards 0.9600-550. Cable (1.5729) may see some more dip towards 1.5650-00 today.
The Asian currencies are continuing to trade strong. The Korean-Won is trading near 1131 and might strengthen further towards 1125. The USD-SGD is trading near 1.3149. Dollar-Rupee market was closed yesterday on account of the Half-Yearly Bank Closing. It has closed lower on Wednesday at 44.92/93 and might see further downmove towards 44.75-70 given the overall weakness in the dollar.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were down 1 bps while the 10Y yields were up 3 bps to quote at 0.42% and 2.51% respectively.
23:30 GMT JP Unemp
...Expected 5.1%...Previous 5.2%
09:00 GMT EU Unemp
...Expected 10.0%...Previous 10.0%
14:00 GMT Aug US Manufacturing ISM
...Expected 54.6...Previous 56.3
12:30 GMT US Aug Personal Income
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 0.2%
12:30 GMT US Aug PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.4%...Previous 0.4%
US GDP Q2 '10 (Fnl)
...Actual 1.7%...Previous 1.6%
...Actual -0.1%...Previous 0.2%
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