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Friday October 1, 2010 - 10:18:36 GMT
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European Market Update: Narrower peripheral debt spreads and Chinese PMI data offset the deceleration in some of the European PMI figures (TTN)

Friday, October 01, 2010 6:11:36 AM

 European Market Update: Narrower peripheral debt spreads and Chinese PMI data offset the deceleration in some of the European PMI figures


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Q2 Current Account: $18.7B V $33.3B PRIOR
- (RU) Russia Money Supply w/e Sept 27th (Rub): 5.22T V 5.24T PRIOR
- (GE) Germany Aug Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% V +0.4%E, Y/Y: 2.2% V 3.4%E
- (IR) Ireland Sept NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 V 51.1 PRIOR
- (SW) Sweden Sept Swedbank PMI Survey: 63.3 V 58.9E
- (AU) Australia Sep RBA Commodity Price Index: A$97.2 v A$99.2 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: 52.4% v 52.7% prior
- (HU) Hungary Sept PMI: 50.2 V 51.9 Prior
- (NO) Norway Sept PMI: 52.8 V 51.0E
- (TU) Turkey Sept Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 V 51.3 prior
- (PD) Poland Sept Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 V 53.8 prior
- (SP) Spain Sept Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 v 51.2 prior (first time below 50 since Feb)
- (SZ) Swiss Aug Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.5% V 4.8% prior
- (SZ) Swiss Sept SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 59.7 V 60.7E
- (DE) Denmark Aug Retail Sales M/M: +0.4% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: -0.7% V +1.0%E
- (IT) Italy Sept PMI Manufacturing: 52.6 V 51.8E (lowest since Feb)
- (FR) France Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 56 V 55.4E
- (GE) Germany Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.1 V 55.3E
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 53.7 V 53.6 Prelim (lowest reading since Jan)
- (IT) Italy Aug Unemployment Rate: 8.2% V 8.5%E
- (GR) Greece Sept Manufacturing PMI: 44.7 V 43.0 Prior
- (UK) Sept PMI Manufacturing: 53.4 v 53.8e
- (UK) Q2 BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal: -£6.2B V -£2.9BE
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Unemployment Rate: 10.1% V 10.0%E
- (DE) Denmark Sept PMI Survey: 50.6 V 53.7 Prior
- (SA) South Africa Sept Kagiso PMI: 48.4 V 50.8E


- As of 06:07 DAX +0.75%, CAC40 +0.50%, FTSE100 +0.89%
- European shares traded choppily during the session opening higher sustained by encouraging Chinese PMI data. After slipping briefly in negative territory during mid-session, they are continuing to advance but more slowly on mixed PMI data and as traders turn cautious post September highs and ahead of the earnings season. FTS100 shrugged off disappointing UK PMI and reached session highs, currently trading at 1.05% sustained by energy names higher on M&A news from Repsol. Repsol [REP.SP] confirmed it would sell its 40% stake in Brazilian unit to Sinopec for $7.1B. Shares rallied by 5.6%. Meanwhile BP [BP.UK] pledged collateral for Gulf of Mexico Oil $20B spill trust. Reported that cost of response efforts to date $11.2B v $9.5B on Sept 17th. In US session, retailer Kingfisher [KGF.UK] CEO said that he was seeing some pullback in Chinese market after speculative boom.

- (AS) Austria Fin Min Proell: More optimistic about Ireland after yesterday; Foreign exchange policy of Japan will not endanger or damage the EMU
- (AU) Australia Fin Dept: Sees upside risks to inflation forecasts
- (EU) IMF Strauss-Kahn: Does not expect Euro rescue fund to be activated due to Ireland; IMF is ready to assist if necessary; Europe is still suffering massively from the crisis and is still not on the right path; Weak Eurozone restricts Germany's growth outlook
- (EU) ECB's Stark: ECB's monetary policy is accommodative and appropriate; economic situation improved during H1, reiterates slowdown likely H2; Fiscal environment challenging for advanced economies.
- (EU) ECB's Nowotny: The ECB to continue purchasing govt debt as long as market "imbalances" remain.
- (EU) EU's Rehn: Willing to explore financial transaction tax
- Fitch: Raises Euro region 2010 GDP forecasts to 1.8%, up 0.5%; lowers US to 2.7%, down 0.3%
- Fitch: Raises Euro region 2010 GDP forecasts to 1.8%, up 0.5%; lowers US to 2.7%, down 0.3%
- (HU) Hungary PM Spokesperson: There cannot be any more austerity measures
- (IR) Ireland' Debt Agency's Whelan: Country has about €20B in account; Appropriate to temporarily exit market and allow investors to digest information; Feedback from markets on decision to cancel auctions were positive.
- (JP) Japan PM Kan: Will take decisive steps on the yen as needed; Expects the BoJ to keep working closely with the Govt
- (PD) Poland PM aide Boni: Forecasts 2011 Economic growth at 4%
- (PO) Portugal Debt Agency: Planning to raise €2.5-3B in bonds in Q4; Maintaining 2010 issuance target at €20-22B
- (SP) Spain PM Zapatero: Economic growth will start to consolidate this year though will be weak; economic growth to begin next year

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk was on in the currency markets after strong PMI data out of China. Euro ignored mixed PMI data and weaker German retail data continuing to rally against the dollar testing the 1.3720 resistance level. The boost is sustained as the USD continues to be under selling pressure and peripheral spreads tightened on relief over Anglo-Irish costs and supportive rhetoric from EU officials. JPY was steady around 83 level on USD weakness, shrugging off BoJ intervention fears. Cable was stable in the 1.58 area and did not move much against the Euro either despite disappointing UK data. Aussie seemed to rest on 0.9725 level after reaching multi-year highs of 0.9733 on Thursday. European data was not encouraging at best but Bunds and Bunds are lower as spreads narrow with bad news out of Spain and Ireland already priced in.

In the Papers-Geopolitical
- In South America, the Ecuadorian military attacked a hospital where President Correa was being held. It was later reported that President Correa arrived at the presidential palace, after leaving the hospital due to gunfire between troops and police.
-The Financial Times reported that the Greek parliament has passed tax amnesty legislation. Under the bill, millions of citizens could be granted tax amnesty, where the government could collect about €2 billion over the next two years. Note that the outstanding unpaid taxes in Greece over the last ten years are estimated at €35 billion
- The Telegraph commented on the involvement of hedge funds in Anglo Irish's debt. According to the article, hedge funds that hold Anglo Irish Bank's junior debt are seeking to be compensated 35 to 40 cents on the dollar against the current trading price of 23 to 25 cents for the debt. The Irish government is not planning to pay a premium to holders of the junior debt. The hedge funds said if their demands are not met, they could trigger a default crisis because if these hedge funds press the issue, Ireland could be forced to put Anglo Irish into insolvency.

- Euro broadly stronger as peripheral bond spreads narrow: EUR/GBP hits 4-month high, EUR/JPY hits 2-month high
- Czech Crown hits 22-month high against Euro following Czech central bank minutes
- British Pound trade weighed index hits a 4-month low
- Some EU and Asian PMI data shows signs of deceleration in Sept, with some countries showing contraction
- Food Inflation: UN FAO food price index hits highest level in 25-months
- US equities have best Sept since the late 1930.

*** Looking ahead***
- 7:30 (IN) India weekly Forex reserves
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 9.4%e v 8.7%
- (CZ) Czech Sept Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -78.7B prior
- 8:30 (US) Aug Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Personal Spending: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 8:30 (US) Aug PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior
- 9:00 (BR) Brazil Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.5 prior
- 9:55 (US) Sept Final University of Michigan Confidence: 67.0e v 66.6 prelim
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Trade Balance: $1.4B v $2.4B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Remittances: $1.9Be v $1.9B prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept ISM Manufacturing: 54.5e v 56.3 prior; ISM Prices Paid: 59.0e v 61.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Construction Spending M/M: -0.4%e v -1.0% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Sept New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -19.3% prior
- 14:00 (IT) Italy Sept Budget Balance: No est v -€8.0B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -€51.7B prior
- 17:00 (US) Sept Domestic Vehicle Sales: 8.7Me v 8.66M prior; Total Vehicle Sales: 11.50Me v 11.46M prior
- (PE) Peru Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior
- (PE) Peru Sept Wholesale Prices M/M: No est v 0.4% prior



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