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Saturday October 2, 2010 - 02:42:22 GMT
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Aussie Dollar Traders Waiting for Bullish News from RBA

The AUD USD closed higher for the week, but the pace of the rally was slowed by the rangebound trade in the U.S. equity markets. Some traders also feel the Aussie Dollar is overbought in the short-run while others believe that the expected 25 basis point hike in the benchmark interest rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia is already priced in. The RBA meets on October 5.


In addition to the rate hike, traders want to hear that additional hikes will follow shortly in order for the Aussie to breakout above resistance at .9850. Look for selling pressure to begin if the RBA fails to raise rates or hint at future hikes.


Fundamentally, the Australian Dollar is expected to remain underpinned by bullish economic news from China. Although Australia boasts of a strong banking system, a robust mining business and a central bank that has been aggressively raising rates, it is still very reliant on China for economic growth.


Technically, the Aussie Dollar remains entrenched in an uptrend. Upside momentum has been slowing, but no solid sign of a top has developed. At this point on the chart and because of short-term overbought indicators, this market needs a catalyst to propel it through the last main top at .9849. Hopefully the bulls will get the news they are waiting for in the central bank statement.


The EUR USD finished the week and month sharply higher. The driving force behind the spectacular rally was the fact the U.S. Federal Reserve green lit the move earlier in the month at its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting by hinting at another round of additional quantitative easing.


The Euro finished the week by soaring all session Friday, hitting a new-six month high, as a report indicating brewing developing weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector supported speculators betting on additional quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. 


Traders have been driving the Euro higher on the thought that the Fed will have to resume large-scale purchases of Treasury Bonds in an effort to provide liquidity to the economy to keep the recovery from derailing. 


The Dollar has been under relentless pressure since the Federal Open Market Committee meeting several weeks ago. At this meeting the Fed hinted strongly about resuming its asset-buyback program, also known as quantitative easing. As long as QE remains on the table no one wants to hold Dollars.


This morning, the Institute for Supply Management’s Index of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 54.4 in September from 56.3 in August. The number was not low enough to warrant fear of a double-dip recession, but not strong enough for the Fed to remove the threat of Fed QE.


The Greenback remained under pressure most of the day even though the  Reuters/University of Michigan’s Final Consumer Sentiment report was revised upward to 68.2 from 66.6 and U.S. Consumer Spending rose to 0.4% in August, while incomes rose 0.5%. 


Euro traders also shrugged off a report confirming a slowdown in the pace of manufacturing growth and an elevated regional unemployment rate of 10.1% in August.


This meant that traders are more concerned about the prospects of fresh QE by the Fed than a slowdown in the Euro Zone economy.


Technically, the Euro remains on pace to reach a major Fibonacci Retracement Level at 1.3896. There may be a technical bounce because of profit-taking at this level, but the trend should remain strong unless the 50% level at 1.3510 is violated.


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Mon 10 Sep 2018
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