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Monday October 4, 2010 - 10:03:30 GMT
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European Market Update: Price action succumbs to profit-taking mode ahead of key interest rate decisions and US employment situation later this week (TTN)

Monday, October 04, 2010 5:58:29 AM

 European Market Update: Price action succumbs to profit-taking mode ahead of key interest rate decisions and US employment situation later this week


***Economic Data***
- (SP) Spain Sept Net Unemployment M/M: 48.1K v 53.8Ke
- (TU) Turkey Sept Consumer Prices M/M: 1.2% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 8.9%e
- (TU) Turkey Sept Producer Prices M/M: 0.5% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 8.9% v 9.0% prior
- (IT) Italy Q2 YTD Deficit to GDP Ratio: 6.1% v 8.8% prior
- (SP) Spain Sept Consumer Confidence: 72.8 v 74.9 prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept FIPE CPI: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Sentix Investor Confidence: 8.8 v 8.0e
- (UK) Sept PMI Construction: 53.8 v 51.4e
- (HK) Hong Kong Aug Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 16.9% v 16.2%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 14.7% v 13.4%e
- (GE) German Sept new passenger car registration Y/Y: -18% v -27% prior - VDIK
- (EU) Euro-Zone Aug PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e
- (SA) South Africa Sep Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 16.6% v 36.9% prior

- Notes/Observations:
- Stiglitz warns the future of the Euro was looking bleak and might not survive.
- EU summit later this week with China PM Wen reiterating vows to increase the country's domestic demand and support stable Euro currency
- Terror warnings across Europe
- Brazil elections set to go towards a run-off with Rousseff facing Serra
- Greece set to unveil its 2011 draft budget with deficit to
GDP target seen at 7.6% v 8.1% in 2010

- Equities:
- As of 05:40 am Euro Stoxx -1.1% at 2,703; FTSE100 -0.6% at 5,559; CAC40 -1.1% at 3,64; DAX -1.0% at 6,143

- European stocks continued to trade in negative territory for the sixth day in a row which is the longest stretch since January 2010. Banking sector weighed on the markets as concerns over double-dip and growth still worry investors. Economic think tank the New Economics Foundation (NEF) said that
UK banks may require further government support. Moreover unemployment and confidence data out of Spain was not reassuring. The top fallers were the automobile names with Pirelli and Daimler leading the selling. Daimler fell 2.2%, BMW fell 1.9%, Volkswagen fell 4%. In Germany the new car registration declined by 18% while Italian sales also fell by 19%. Fiat [F.IT] reported that its September sales had declined by 26% this month compared to last year. Shares dropped by 1.5%.
- In individual names Sanofi [SAN.FR] fell 1% after launching a €18.5B hostile bid against Genzyme [
GENZ]. The news had already been speculated by the press and it was priced in at the open of European trading. In UK Premier Foods jumped by 10% after confirming it had received approaches that may or may not lead to a sale of its meat free business, including Quorn. Wolseley [WOS.UK] was up 1.3% after Credit Suisse initiated coverage with an outperform rating.

- Speakers:
- ECB's member Costa reiterated the central banks view that the global recovery continued to remain weak and that
Portugal's economic recovery was both bumpy and uneven. He noted that the Portuguese banking systems required alternative access to funding other than ECB and that the top priority was to consolidate the country's public accounts. He added that Portugal's austerity measures were not enough and needed political consensus on its 2011 budget
- UK Chancellor Osborne: Reiterated view that
UK must make tough decision on austerity measures. He also again explained that spending cuts in programs are necessary due to inherited debts; stresses that potential cuts to be fair. The Real risk was the lack of action to implement cuts. Britain was set for sustained steady economic recovery (makes no specific forecasts on this topic). and UK has move out of financial danger zone
- Swiss National Bank (SNB)member Hildebrand reiterated the view that measures would sort out 'too big to fail' issue in Switzerland and reduce the risks for the economy
- Iraq Oil Min Shahristani commented that the country had over 1.4B barrels of recoverable reserves
- Greece Finance Minister Papaconstantinou stated in a press interview that the country would adhere to the terms of its EU/IMF bailout
- Reportedly German Bundesbank: Federal govt's 2010 net new borrowing could be limited to €50B (in line with recent press speculation on that topic)
- Fitch affirms New Zealand sovereign rating at "AA+"; Maintains negative outlook
- Reportedly Euro zone to inform China that the yuan currency is totally undervalued

- Currencies: The USD managed to find some support against the European pairs in early trading. The weekend press articles concerning Ireland budget coupled with Economist Stiglitz warning that the future of the Euro was 'looking bleak' and might not survive provided an excuse for retracement from recent weeks trends.
Greece was also expected to unveil its 2011 draft budget. The EUR/USD tested below 1.3720 within the first hour of the European session with Sanofi initiation of its hostile public tender offer for Genzyme at $69/shr in cash in a deal valued at $18.5B (in line with prior price speculation) cited as an excuse.
- French sources say there are no secret negotiations among the G20 members and
China over the Yuan currency exchange rate. China PM weekend comments on support for Greek bonds helped to tighten the spread between the Greek/German 10-year government bond.
- EUR/CHF cross tested 6-week highs of 1.3466 before turning lower with peripherals concerns cited as a reason for the reversal. Dealers noted that Austrian banks were large selling of the cross and the pair was back below 1.3360 mid-morning.

- Geopolitical/ In the papers: :
- The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard said that the IMF believes Western economies are stuck in near depression like economic conditions. He noted that the IMF report hints that austerity plans will do more damage than it has so far admitted.
- The Hungarian local election on Sunday resulted in the ruling Fidesz party winning the elections, as expected, with 31.4% of the vote against the opposition socialists at 12.4%. The Fidesz party won 22 out of 23 key cities, including a key win in
Budapest. Note the government changed its deadline for the next year's 2011 budget draft to the 15th of October after the local election.
- Various media reports have speculated that
Britain was on the verge of another banking failure. The economic think tank the New Economics Foundation (NEF) state that banks may require additional government support to plug a funding gap by as much as £750 billion.
The think tank estimates that so far about £1.2 trillion of state cash went into the banking system, though the lack of information on how it was used is 'shocking'.
In the Guardian,
UK think tank Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) criticizes the government's plans to lower unemployment. According to IPPR, currently there are 330K less job vacancies in the UK than there are long-term unemployed, which has limited the success of the government's £3B work program.
- Sunday Tribune reported that according to sources that
Ireland's government needed to find up to €4.5B in savings in the Dec budget.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (GR) Greece to unveil its 2011 draft budget with deficit to GDP target seen below 7.6%
- 10:00 (US) Aug Factory Orders: -0.4%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Consumer Confidence: 89.0e v 88.7 prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: 2.8%e v 5.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.9%e v -20.1% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Aug IMEF Manufacturing Index: 53.0e v53.5 prior; Non Manufacturing Index: 53.0e v 53.1 prior
-17:00 (CO) Sept Colombia Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior



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