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Tuesday April 12, 2005 - 12:44:12 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 12/04/05.......1227 GMT

Euro @ 1.2984/87....Strong resistance now at 1.3000
--------------------------------------------------

R: 1.3018-21 / 1.3054-70 / 1.3114-30
S: 1.2959-47 / 1.2927-12 / 1.2902-1.2895
Supports at 1.2959-47 have held the pair for a minor rise to 1.3000 so far today. It now seems like the 1.3000 level itself might prove to be a stiff resistance before 1.3054 is tested. If so expect the pair to remain ranged between 1.3000-1.2959 before the data on US trade balance is released.


Yen @ 107.70/74....Watching resistances at 108.00-30
---------------------------------------------------------

R: 108.00 / 108.13-30 / 108.56
S: 107.43-38 / 107.06 / 106.77
The pair has bounced a bit on an intraday basis near to 107.90 levels. In case it rises further watch for resistance at 108.00 and later at 108.30. If the resistances hold expect a fall back towards 107.43 and lower. On the other hand, should the immediate support at 107.43 continue to hold it could turn bullish bias and attempt a break of 108.30.

Holding:
$ Short 25K at 107.85, SL 108.10, TP 107.10. As soon as the market trades 107.50, bring SL down to 108.00


Euro-Yen @ 139.90/95....Likely test of resistance at
140.15-26
-----------------------------------------------------------

R: 140.15-37 / 140.76-99 / 141.25
S: 139.79 / 139.52-50 / 139.26-05
As expected the support at 139.43 has held the Cross within the range of 140.26-139.43 so far today. If the immediate support at 139.79 holds, we might expect test of resistance at 140.26 today. On a break above this level a rise to 141 and above may also be seen.On the other hand a failure to break above 140.26 may result in a fall below 139.43 and later to 139.00 levels.


Swiss @ 1.1928/33....Watching now
-------------------------------------------------

R: 1.1953-78 / 1.1994-95 / 1.2011-17
S: 1.1912-10 / 1.1879 / 1.1856
The pair has seen a minor bounce back to 1.1944 within an intraday range of 1.1950-1.1914 today. If it breaks 1.1950 later on, it may test the stronger resistance at 1.1992. On the other hand if 1.1950 resistance itself holds, then the pair may continue to be in range of 1.1950-1.1914. For the time being we remain indecisive in the pair.


Cable @ 1.8934/39....Holding Long
--------------------------------------

R: 1.8965 / 1.8980-98 / 1.9037
S: 1.8909-1.8900 / 1.8886-74 / 1.8836-13
While the supports at 1.8890 hold the pair today, there are chances of a further rise to 1.8965. As it rises higher watch out for resistance at 1.8980, which can prove to be a crucial level. In case it holds there are chances of a fall back towards 1.8880 and lower.

Holding:
Long Cable 15K at 1.8937, SL 1.8880 (down from 1.8890), TP 1.8980


Happy Trading!

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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