Tuesday October 5, 2010 - 03:51:42 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 05-Oct-2010 - 0350 GMT
The US Equities were down over more than expected decline in factory orders coupled with worries over the European Economy.. The Dow (10751.27) was down 0.72% and the S&P 500 (1137.03) was down 0.80%. The Q3 numbers will start coming out soon and are expected to drive the markets along with the crucial NFP data, due this Friday. The Dow has seen a surge of about 10% last month and may still have the potential to touch 11000, while above 10550-600 in the coming weeks.
The Asians are trading weak today. The Nikkei (9382.59) is flat ahead of the conclusion of the 2-day BOJ meet today and may fall towards 9200-100 while belwo 9500 in the coming weeks. In Australia, the All Oridnaires (4639.00, down 0.84%) is trading lower on concern that the interets rates may be hiked yet again, to stem inflation. The Shanghai (2655.66) is closed on account of National Day till Thursday, 7-Oct-10. In India, the Sensex (20475.73) and the Nifty (6159.45) lost early gains and closed up only about 0.15% and 0.26% yesterday. The markets may continue to see strong capital flows for some more days which may drive it towards 21500-22000 in the coming weeks.
Crude (81.36) closed slightly lower yesterday following the stronger dollar and the weak equities market. Resistance is seen at 82.50 and a strong break above it might take it further up towards 85-86 in the coming days. Support is seen at 80.
Gold (1314.50) has come off from its high of 1320. Strong dollar and profit taking pulled down the pirce yesterday. Resistance is seen in 1320-25 region and a failure to see a break above it might see some correction towards 1300-1280 in the coming days/weeks.
The Euro (1.3653) has come off from its high of 1.3806 and it has signifcant Support in 1.3620-00 region, a break below which might pull it further down towards 1.3500. Dollar-Yen (83.47) has bounced back once again from the 83.20-00 SUpport region. Market is awaiting for the BOJ's meeting statement which will be out in some time. The Euro-Yen (114.05) Cross has come off from yesterday's high of 115.28. A further dip towards 113.00-112.70 is looking likely on a strong break below 114.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9725) may see some fall towards 0.9650. Aussie (0.9590) has fallen below 0.9650 and may move in a small range of 0.9550-650 today. Cable (1.5797) has been unable to break above the Resistance at 1.5850 again and may dip towards 1.57 today.
The Asian currencies are trading weak. The Korean-Won is trading near 1135 and the USD-SGD is trading near 1.3166. Dollar-Rupee has closed higher yesterday at 44.57/58. Resistance is seen at 44.75 and a strong break above it might increase the chances of further rise towards 45.00-20.
Brazil has increased the tax on foreign investments in its fixed income instruments to 4% from 2%.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were unchanged at 0.41% and the 10Y yields were down 2 bps to quote at 2.47%.
The 2-day BOJ policy meet is expected to conclude today.
00:30 GMT Sep Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ 2.35 Bln...Previous A$ 1.74 Bln
04:30 GMT AUD RBA Interest Rate
...Expected 4.75%...Previous 4.50%
03:49 GMT BOJ Meeting
...Expected 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
09:00 GMT EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.1
No major data release yesterday
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