**Economic Data*** - (EU) ECB drained â‚¬63.5B in 7-day Term Deposit Tender vs. â‚¬63.5B targeted - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Oct 2nd: -0.8% w/w; +2.4% y/y - (CL) Chile Aug Economic Activity Y/Y: 7.6% v 7.8%e - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Oct 2nd: +2.6% y/y; MTD: -0.4% v Aug - (BR) Brazil Aug CNI Capacity Utilization: 82.3% v 82.4%e - (SI) Singapore Sept Purchasing Managers Index: 49.5 v 50.5e; Electronics Sector Index: 48.5 v 51.3e - (US) Sept ISM Non-Manufacturing: 53.2 v 52.0e
- US equity indices headed higher in the premarket, helped along by follow-through strength from the BoJ's rock-bottom rate cut and Australia's decision to leave rates unchanged for time being. The indices gained ahead of the September ISM non-manufacturing reading as chatter made the rounds that the data would come in above all estimates. The actual number was better than expected, with the key new orders and employment sub indices returning to the strong levels seen in the July reading. Gold is at fresh all-time highs, around $1,337, after comments from various quarters, including Warren Buffett, who said the US government is following policies that could lead to inflation and George Soros, who discussed the strong case in the US for additional stimulus. Treasury prices are little changed with short term yields remaining near fresh all time lows. The spread between US and German government 2-year paper has doubled in a little over a week helping maintain pressure on the US Dollar.
- Analysts at JP Morgan released an upbeat report on the large-cap bank sector ahead of Q3 earnings results, noting that they expect large banks cap to beat estimates thanks to better net interest income and higher mortgage production revenue. Banking analyst Meredith Whitney, who made a splash just last week by forecasting that banks would face a tough Q4, told CNBC this morning that the banks could have one more good quarter based on decent credit quality from the mortgage prospective or one-time gains. Mosaic is up 3% but off its best levels after a strong Q1 revenue performance. The potash producer noted that demand is strengthening and market sentiment has improved due to higher agricultural prices and the need to refill a de-stocked global distribution pipeline. Competitor CF is up 2.5% with MOS. High-end retailer Talbots lowered its revenue outlook for Q3, sending shares of TLB down 10%.
- The greenback continued to maintain its soft tone heading into the ISM non-manufacturing release with risk appetite aided by the chatter of the higher ISM reading. EUR/USD was probing above the 1.38 handle, closing in on the "January effect" pivot point of 1.3860. Overall dealers felt comfortable that either way the number would favor equities adding that a "bad number" would further provide support the need for QE2 and thus aid risk sentiment. Keep in mind that the January trading range in EUR/USD has marked the high and low ends of the pair for the remainder of the trading year in 8 of the 11 years since the euro's launch in 1999. The break of 1.3860 earlier this year provided the basis for the sub-1.20 test in early June. In the 2008 and 2009 period, during which the overall Jan high/low were both violated later in the year, the second breach provided an additional 10+ big figure trend moves. The second breach would be above the 1.4680 level.
***Looking Ahead*** - (US) Weekly API energy inventories - (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Oct 3rd: No est v -45 prior
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