Wednesday April 13, 2005 - 00:52:31 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 13th April 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2015 ... 1.2045 ... 1.2060 ... 1.2098
Support....: 1.1971 ... 1.1953 ... 1.1931 ... 1.1896
While 1.1931-53 supports we see risk of a move to 1.2060-98 but beware of possible earlier consolidation
The 1.1896 low just about remained intact with the recovery sharper than expected and exceeding even the 1.2020 target. However, overall we feel that the medium term consolidation is intact and there should be a further attempt higher by late today and possibly into tommorrow. There is support at 1.1931-53 and we feel this should be tested first. Thus a long position at 1.1960 looks good with stops below 1.1920. Take profit at 1.2050 although we see the risk being to the 1.2060-98 area which should hold. Only above 1.2100-15 would suggest the possibility of continued strength back above 1.2145 and to 1.2202.
The recovery from 1.1896 has moved slightly deeper than expected and we see only a chance of a slight drift down from current levels towards the 1.1931-53 area only. Thus a stronger bearish stance would require a move below 1.1930 which would then suggest follow-through to below 1.1896 and probably then down to 1.1838 at least but no lower than 1.1800.
Elliott Wave Comments:
12th April 2005
Although price dipped to just below our lower target at 1.1904 we feel this still holds the broad expanded flat triangle structure and should now imply a 61.8% - 76.4% projection of Wave b to provide a target for Wave d around 1.2060-98. This should come in three waves with the first expected to stall in the 1.1969-91 area (max 1.2020) before a pullback and rally to the 1.2060-98 area. This should provoke a final decline in Wave e to complete Wave -b- and thus cause the uptrend to resume in Wave -c-.
13th April 2005
Basically the structure is intact although the Wave a of Triangle Wave d moved up higher than expected to 1.2045. We feel that Wave b has potential to the 1.1931-53 area but from there look for Wave c to rally to the 1.2060-98 target to complete Triangle Wave d. Thus we would then expect one final dip in Wave e before the uptrend resumes above 1.2115 and higher.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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