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Wednesday October 6, 2010 - 10:18:09 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- ADP the Focus


The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis

ADP the Focus

10:00 GMT ( Oct 6- It seems that the Bank of Japan decision to inject additional funds into the system (quantitative ease) has been a catalyst for the markets. By giving equities in Japan and Asia a boost. It appears that the risk trade is back on globally. It remains to be seen if this correlation trading pattern can last for very long. Also of interest, and part of the larger picture, global political pressure on China to allow the yuan to trade more flexibly (=higher) has intensified with Europe placing a lot of pressure on Beijing.  

EURUSD bulls appeared to add to their longs on Tuesday despite the better than expected ISM Services PMI. All are now setting up for U.S. employment data today, Thursday and Friday. Today sees the closely-followed ADP private employment estimate. The markets seem to be counting on the data to reinforce the outlook for a second round of quantitative ease by the FOMC in November. We are watching the yield on the 10-yr note as the best barometer of current market sentiment about what the FOMC will decide in about a month's time.

On Tuesday, the BOJ cited its goal to depress the JPY. We suspect the central bank has been actively defending the 83.00 line. We have no doubt that the U.S. administration and the Fed are  pursuing a benign neglect weak USD policy. A lower USD promotes U.S. growth and at the present time would not be an issue for inflation. Also U.S. import demand traditionally has been a key engine for global growth. We have been hearing reports that Asian central banks have then  recycling new dollar reserves into EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD. Everyone is trying to run a weak currency policy. The ECB and BOE will make their latest policy decisions on Thursday. 


UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  In North America , the ADP private Jobs survey will be closely followed and the latest weekly energy data are awaited. Canada will see the Ivey PMI report.

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads



Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:02
EUR 1.3857 20 JPY 115.08 -7 JPY 132.12 -11
GBP 1.5909 19 GBP 87.10 2 CHF 153.65 2
CHF 0.9658 -10 CHF 1.3383 5 CHF vs.    
JPY 83.05 -17       JPY 85.99 -9

The EURUSD is steady on the day and the GBPUSD is unchanged. The EURGBP cross is even. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on a weakening U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is stable and EURCHF is even. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is lower and the EURJPY cross is down. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge


Commodity         9:02
CAD 1.0125 -39 AUD 0.9767 53 Gold 1346 6.17
CNY 6.6903 -13 NZD 0.7517 30 WTI 82.84 0.11

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are higher vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is likely to tighten in October. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are higher. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 


Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed up. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.45%, -3 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 


Equities           9:02
NIK 9691 173 DAX 6275 59 DJIA 10945 -5
HSI 22880 241 FTSE 5690 54 S&P 1161 0
SSEC 2556 0 SMI 6367 0 NAS 2400 2
ASX 4687 80       TSE 12498 15

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Prior to, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


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Trading Ideas for 12 March 2018

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 12 Mar 2018
A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction
Tue 13 Mar 2018
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction
Wed 14 Feb 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction
Thu 15 Mar 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI
A 12:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 16 Mar 2018
A 10:00 EZ- final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich

John M. Bland, MBA
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