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Wednesday October 6, 2010 - 20:07:11 GMT
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Weaker Outlook for U.S. Economy Feeds Gold and Silver Rally

This morning’s weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP report was another sign of a weaker economy. With the employment market possibly contracting, traders grew even more confident that the Fed would add liquidity to the market.

Speculators continued to drive December Gold and December Silver sharply higher in anticipation of another round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Pumping more money into the economy is generally bad for the Dollar, but bullish for commodities and equities.

Technically December Silver regained a steep uptrending Gann angle from the 17.79 bottom. This is a sign of strength. This angle establishes support today at 22.59. A close under this level will be a sign of developing weakness.

The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against all major currencies in reaction to this morning’s disappointing U.S. ADP employment report. Traders were banking on a figure of +20,000 but were handed -39,000.

With the number on the wrong side of the zero, traders sold off the Greenback in anticipation of a weak U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number on Friday. The disappointing, but not surprising number also solidified trader conviction that the Fed will add additional liquidity to the market in order to stimulate the economy.

No one expected a “big” number since the economy only grew at 1.6% according to the latest GDP report, but today’s report showed that employers aren’t necessarily firing, but they certainly aren’t hiring. This morning’s report could be a sign that employment is beginning a contraction.

Forex Quickies

The December Euro broke out to the upside through the Fibonacci target at 1.3896. Let’s see if it can sustain the rally by establishing support above this level. A close back under the .618 line could be the start of a short-term profit-taking break ahead of tomorrow’s European Central Bank policy meeting.

The rally in the December British Pound helped establish a new higher bottom at 1.5669. The rally, however, appears to be slowing in front of the August top at 1.5997. Trading is light today because of Thursday’s central bank meeting. Investors are looking for the Bank of England to talk about additional quantitative easing through its asset buyback program.

The December Swiss Franc is up this morning as the U.S. Dollar continues to lose its glitter as the global reserve currency. The main trend is up. A new main bottom was formed at 1.0165. A move through this price will turn the main trend to down.

The December Japanese Yen broke the “intervention top”. Traders are approaching the market with caution at current levels in anticipation of another round of intervention by the Bank of Japan. So far there has been no sign of central bank activity. The last intervention took place during the Japanese trading session.

The December Canadian Dollar rallied sharply higher early in the session but is now trading off its high. The weaker equity market as well as the intraday break in crude oil off its high is giving long traders an excuse to take profits. The weaker Dollar, stronger Euro is expected to help limit the break.

The December Australian Dollar took out yesterday’s high while slowing working its way toward the July 2008 top at .9849. The break in the U.S. equity markets has had a limited effect on the Aussie. It’s going to take a hard break in the stock market to trigger a profit-taking break. The weak U.S. economy is the main catalyst behind the Aussie Dollar’s strength.


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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
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