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Thursday October 7, 2010 - 02:08:48 GMT
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E-mini S&P Ekes Out Small Gain Following Weak ADP Jobs Data

The December E-mini S&P 500 closed slightly better after the release of a weaker-than-expected ADP employment data report. Traders took this market up to 1160.00 overnight, just shy of the May 12 top at 1160.75, before selling off. 


A steady stream of buyers held this market up most of the session, thus avoiding a daily closing price reversal top. The weaker Dollar and calls for additional liquidity by the Fed have been the catalyst behind the recent strength. On Tuesday, the E-mini surged after the Bank of Japan eased interest rates and pledged more quantitative easing.


While the S&P 500 and the Dow remain in strong breakout modes, the December E-mini NASDAQ is still struggling to follow-through to the upside. This divergence should be of  some concern to the bulls since all three major indices seem out of sync.


Before Tuesday surge to the upside, the three indices looked top heavy and ready to rollover to the downside. Shorts looked to be in control as every recent rally was being met by fresh selling pressure.


Today’s action suggests the same type of pattern taking place – liquidation on rallies – this makes me suspect that Tuesday’s rally was short-covering rather than new buying. Rather than step in ahead and speculate on the short-side, traders should wait until after Friday’s U.S. Jobs Report to make a call.


Based on the current chart formation, a sell-off on Friday could trigger a weekly closing price reversal top on a close under 1142.25.


Bank of England monetary policymakers are currently meeting to decide whether to pump more new money into the fragile U.K. economy. This decision comes on the heels of fresh stimulus measures taken by the Bank of Japan to bolster its weak economy.

On Thursday the BoE is expected to hold its key benchmark lending rate at a record-low 0.50 percent after a two-day monetary policy meeting.


Last week the December British Pound fell sharply after policymaker Adam Posen said the central bank should consider revving up the printing press and injecting more money into the economy. He further warned that a slow response by the central bank could curtail growth and push down deflation.


The BoE’s last foray into the world of quantitative easing ended in February. Prior to the expiration, the central bank through its asset buyback program created close to $317 of new money by purchasing government bonds and high-quality private sector assets.


Given the financial risks facing the U.K. economy at this time, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is revisiting the policy this week in an effort to project growth in the economy with or without the stimulus.


Traders have been warning since the election in May that the possibility of QE would have to be re-evaluated at a future date since the new government implemented austerity measures that could slow down the economy’s positive momentum.


Traders fear that the new round of austerity measures, due from the government in two weeks, could drive the economy toward a double-dip recession. Some are forecasting a slash in spending by as much as 25 percent.


Although there are signs the economic recovery is fading, the deciding factor for the MPC will likely be the inflation figure. If inflation continues to remain strong then the BoE will not have to act as swiftly, and the current policy will be left on hold. Any weakness in growth as measured by inflation is likely to mean that more quantitative easing at the end of the year or the start of 2011.


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