European Market Update: USD approaches multiple key psychological levels (TTN)
Thursday, October 07, 2010
European Market Update: USD approaches multiple key psychological levels
***Economic Data*** - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Oct 1st: $494.3B v $487.7B prior - (JP) Japan Sept preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 112.9% v 170.0% prior - (IN) India Primary Articles WPI Y/Y: 18.5% v 18.3% prior; Food Articles WPI Y/Y 16.2% v 16.4% prior - (FR) France Aug Trade Balance: -â‚¬4.9B v -â‚¬4.0Be - (UK) Sept Halifax House Price Index M/M: -3.6% v -0.2%e; 3M/Year: 2.6% v 3.9%e - (CZ) Czech Aug Industrial Output Y/Y: 12.9% v 9.5%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -2.1% v -4.5% prior - (CZ) Czech Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.9%e - (CZ) Czech Aug Trade Balance (CZK): 500M v 5.0Be - (HU) Hungary Aug Preliminary Trade Balance: â‚¬392.0M v â‚¬234.0Me - (AS) Austria Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.1% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.1% v 5.6% prior - (DE) Denmark Aug Industrial Production M/M: -6.6% v 1.4% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: +21.0% v -22.1% prior - (NV) Netherlands Sept CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e - (NV) Netherlands Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.2% prior - (SW) Sweden Sept Budget Balance (SEK) -15.4B v 8.4B prior - (NO) Norway Aug Industrial Production M/M: -4.7% v -2.9%; Y/Y: -13.0% v -7.8% prior - (NO) Norway Aug Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: -2.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 6.6% prior - (TT) Taiwan Sept Total Trade Balance: $1.8B v $2.5Be; Total Exports Y/Y: 17.5% v 26.6%e; Total Imports Y/Y: 25.0% v 30.0%e - (PH) Philippines Central Bank leaves its Overnight Borrowing Rate at 4.00%; as expected - (UK) Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.1%e - (UK) Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 5.8%e - (IC) Iceland Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: 11.2B v 7.0B prior - (GR) Greece Sept Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.5% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.6% prior - (SA) South Africa Sept SACCI Business Confidence: 87.8 v 87.6 prior - (PO) Portugal Aug Industrial Sales M/M: -19.3% vv 6.7% prior; Y/Y: 14.7% vv 6.4% prior - (GE) Germany Aug Industrial Production M/M: 1.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 10.7% v 9.8%e
Fixed income: - (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total â‚¬3.2B in 2.5% Oct 2013 Bono bond vs. indicated range between â‚¬3.0-4.0B; avg yield 2.527% v 2.276% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.2x v 1.9x prior - (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) sold total â‚¬8.49B vs. â‚¬8.5B indicated in 2020, 2026 and 2029 Bonds - Sold â‚¬5.075B in Oct 2020 Oats; avg yield 2.68% v 2.55% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.78x v 2.17x prior - Sold â‚¬2.29B in Apr 2026 Oats; avg yield 3.07% v 3.00% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.76x v 1.28x prior - Sold â‚¬1.125B in Apr 2029 Oats; avg yield 3.15% v 3.65% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.8x v 2.43x prior - Hungary Debt Agency sold total HUF50B in 2014, 2016 and 2020 bonds - Sold HUF20B Feb 2014 Bond, avg yield 6.38% - Sold HUF15B Feb 2016 Bond, avg yield 6.51% - Sold HUF15B Nov 2020 Bond, avg yield 6.6%
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - Very strong Australia employment and reinforces tightening bias - ECB and BOE rate decisions later today - US Corp earning season kicks off with Pepsi and Alcoa - Global rebalancing issue moving back to the front burner ahead of weekend G7 and IMF meetings in Washington DC. China has a different view on the currency front compared to EU and US officials. USD continues to be pressured.
Equities: - As of 5:30 am Euro Stoxx flat at 2,779; FTSE100 was flat at 5,679; CAC40 -0.1% at 3,761; DAX -0.1% at 6,267
- European markets failed to sustain gains from yesterday's session and today's open and are heading lower ahead of BoE and ECB rate decision this morning. Also with the jobs report out of the US, it seems that investors are taking profit following a two-day rally. Markets do not expect BoE to act on QE today despite speculations. ECB is also expected to maintain rates steady. Miners gave up yesterday's gains and traded lower despite commodities remaining high. Banks also weighed in the market. - In individual names, French carmaker Renault [RNO.FR] rose 6.75% in the CAC40 after announcing the sale of its 14.9% stake in Volvo in an effort to pay down its debt. Volvo [VOLVA.SW] slipped about 3%. Air France gained as it announced a 1.8% increase in September passenger traffic. - UK retailer Marks & Spencer [MKS.UK]opened flat after its trading update where it warned of tough trading conditions ahead. Company also predicted a pressure in consumers' disposable income, increased commodity prices and remained cautious for this year and the next. However, the like-for-like sales were up 5.3% and the company reiterated its guidance. - Recruiter Michael Page [MPI.UK] reported a 37% increase in gross profit for the third quarter but noted uncertainty over future levels of business confidence and economic activity. Shares are in the red giving up about 3.8%. Car parts retailer - Halfords [HFD.UK] reported a 7.6% increase in its first half revenues but its outlook was grim due to macroeconomic uncertainty. Like-for-like sales are expected to decline 3% in H2. Shares are down by 6%. - Spanish bank Banesto [BTO.SP] reported results in line with estimates but its bad loans had increased on a yearly basis.
Speakers: - IMF's Strauss-Kahn: China Must Accelerate Yuan Revaluation - Japan MoF Sakurai commented that the BoJ's recent easing measures was more aggressive than expected by govt . He added that it would consider whether a sovereign wealth fund is necessary at this time - Japan Fin Min Noda: There is no change in Japan's stance to take decisive fx measures - Greece PM Papandreou reiterated that Greece will achieve its 2010 deficit target despite recent Eurostat upward revisions it's the country's deficit - Poland Fin Min Rostowski commented in an address to Parliament that the present 2011 budget draft deficit would not to exceed PLN40.2B - Fitch analyst commented following yesterday's sovereign downgrade in Ireland debt that the Irish govt could fall in the next few months and that the country needed to impress determination on markets . the analyst reiterated that it was not that concerned over the Irish funding prospects - World Gold Council: Central banks expected to be net buyers of gold in 2011 - OPEC delegate commented that Oil markets remained over supplied and that the organization must adopt a 'wait and see' stance
Currencies: The USD remained under pressure again in the session ahead of the NY morning but was off its worst levels with prop traders sighting the interest rates scenario continues to weigh on the greenback. Numerous psychological levels are being approached including 1.40 in EUR/USD, parity for both USD/CAD and AUD/USD pair; 1.60 handle in GBP/USD. Dealers were keening watching USD/JPY with the next alleged 'line-in-the-sand stated to be at the 82.00 level. Japanese officials continue to use verbal intervention and reiterate that they were watching the FX markets closely. The benign USD neglect theme continues ahead of key European interest rate decisions later today and the US job report on Friday amid growing expectations the Fed will expand credit easing operations to sustain the fragile US economic recovery. The GBP even managed to shrugged of its largest monthly fall in its Halifax house price index but found support after the better production data.
Geopolitical/ In the papers: - In a Telegraph article by Evans-Pritchard, the head of the Irish Business and Employers Confederation (IBEC) Danny McCoy stated that Ireland should honor its debts. According to McCoy a default by Ireland on the junior debt of Anglo Irish Bank could lead to a loss of faith in the country. Note the comments from McCoy came as there has been growing pressure on Ireland's government to rethink its plans for a haircut on the subordinated debt of Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide Building Society. - In British press, the IMF said that the UK needs to reform its public finances. The country needs wholesale reform of its public finances to address its rising pension costs and other spending commitments.
***Looking Ahead *** - 6:45 (EU) IMF Economist Leigh Speaks at Bruegel Institute - 7:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain both interest rates and Asset Purchase 'Target (APT) at current levels of 0.50% and Asset Purchase Target at Â£200B respectively - 7:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain main refi rate unchanged at the current 1.00% level - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Sept IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.5% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Aug Building Permits M/M: -2.0%e v -3.3% prior - 8:30 (CL) Chile Sept Trade Balance: $1.0Be v $530M prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 455Ke v 453K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.45Me v 4.457M prior - 8:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference - 9:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Vehicle Sales: No est v 312.8K prior; Vehicle Production: No est v 329.1K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 65.4K prior - Anfavea - 10:00 (UK) Sept NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.7% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Consumer Prices M/M: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.7% prior; Core CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior - 10:30 (US) Sept ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.2% prior - 11:00 (HU) Hungary Sept YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -1.1B prior - 13:20 (US) Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economic Conditions in Minneapolis - 13:30 ( US) Treasury's Goldstein at Conference in North Carolina - 13:30 (US) Fed's Hoenig Speaks at Forum in Nebraska - 15:00 (US) Aug Consumer Credit: -$3.5Be v -$3.6B prior - (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest rate Decision: Expected to raised the Reference Rate by 25bps to 3.25%
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.