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Friday October 8, 2010 - 01:48:16 GMT
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FOREX NEWS - Dollar bounces on profit-taking as jobs data looms

9:14pm EDT

* Dollar rebounds from lows on profit-taking

* Market players brace for surprises from payrolls, G7

* Yen near 15-year high, intervention fear eases slightly

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The dollar won a respite on Friday after its sharp decline the previous day prompted profit-taking ahead of U.S. jobs data and Group of Seven (G7) and IMF meetings later in the week.

The Japanese yen held near its 15-year peak against the dollar as traders are starting to feel that Japan may not intervene for now -- at least not as aggressively as it did last month -- to keep the yen's gains in check.

"There's speculation that, if the G7 wants a coordinated stance to put pressure on China to raise the yuan, then it becomes more difficult for Japan to intervene," said a dealer at a Japanese brokerage house.

While many market players think expectations of quantitative easing by the Fed will keep pushing the dollar lower, some traders are turning cautious, on the chance that surprise strength in U.S. payroll data could set that scenario back.

Data on Thursday showed U.S. initial jobless claims hit a three-month low, although their four-week average, considered a gauge of their underlying trend, is showing no signs of a significant decline from recent levels. [ID:nN07108320]

The markets are also wary that the G7 and IMF meetings starting on Friday may produce a surprise in the way of a coordinated front on currencies, as calls have mounted for global efforts to avoid competitive currency devaluations.


This wariness helped to knock the euro off an eight-month high of $1.4030 hit on the EBS platform on Thursday, to around $1.3918 EUR=.

The dollar index against a basket of six currencies stood at 77.47 =USD .DXY, after hitting an 8 1/2-month low of 76.906 on Thursday.

George Davis, chief technical analyst at RBC Dominion Securities, said in a report that the index's valuations had reached oversold levels.

But he added: "Retracements to resistance at 79.02 and 80.34 are expected to attract selling interest for a move to the initial support target denoted by the 2010 low at 76.60."

Against the yen, the dollar traded at 82.36 yen JPY=, not far from a 15-year low of 82.11 yen hit on Thursday.

"As the yen has not risen as much as other currencies in recent weeks because of intervention, the yen may be playing catch-up here," the Japanese brokerage house trader said.

Japanese Deputy Finance Minister Mitsuru Sakurai said on Thursday that it was hard to guide G7 discussion on currencies in the way Japan wants, fuelling expectations that Japan may not intervene any time soon. [ID:nTKF107035]

Option barriers are lined up at 82 yen and below, which traders may try to trigger, although some traders said the dollar was more likely to stay above Thursday's low before the U.S. payroll data.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 stood at $0.9810, after rising to $0.9918, its highest since the currency was floated in 1983.

Its hefty yield advantage means the currency is likely to keep attracting capital flows from an increasing number of low-yielding countries in the developed world.

The immediate focus is on a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Ric Battellino at 0305 GMT.

The market is expecting a 67 percent chance of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next month to 4.75 percent from 4.5 percent. (Reporting by Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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