Friday October 8, 2010 - 03:49:09 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 08 -oct-2010 - 0340 GMT
The US Equities closed weak ahead of the crucial NFP data due later today. The Dow (10948.58) was down 0.17% and the S&P 500 (1158.06) was down 0.16%. The Dow has honoured the Resistance near 11000-50 region from the past 3 days and we need to see if it honours or breaks above this region today. A strong break above 11000 may see the markets move up towards 11250 in the coming weeks.
The Asian are mixed today. The Nikkei (9646.59, down 0.39%) and the All Oridnaries (4744.10, flat) are trading weak ahead of the crucial data releases today and meeting of the G7 Finance Ministers on currency markets over the weekend. The Shanghai (2734.59, up 2.97%) is trading higher after a week-long holiday on higher retail sales and stronger Yuan. In India, the Sensex (20315.32, down 1.11%) and the Nifty (6120.30, down 1.07%) closed lower yesterday. The markets may see some strong upmove towards 21500-22000 in the coming weeks/months.
Crude (81.19) fell sharply yesterday from the high of 84.43 on profit booking ahead of the US NFP data release today. Support is seen at 80 and as mentioned earlier a weekly close above 80 would be very bullish for further rise 90 or even 100 in the coming weeks/months. A break below 80 might pull it down towards 78-75.
Gold (1330) witnessed a pull back from its high of 1364.60 yesterday on profit booking ahead of the US jobs data release today. Important Resistance-turned-Support is seen at 1320 which is expected to hold and retain the overall bullish sentiment intact. A break below 1320, though not looking likely might pull it down towards 1300-1290.
Profit taking seen ahead of the US NFP data release. The Euro (1.3951) has bounced back from the low of 1.3857 and is retaining the uptrend. A rise to 1.4050 is looking likely today. Dollar-Yen (82.27) is retaining its downtrend. However, Japan has said that it would continue to intervene. The Euro-Yen (114.77) Cross is retaining its strength and might see a rise towards 116 today.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9658) is retaining its downside momentum and might see futher dip towards 0.9500 which is the next significant Support level seen on the downside. Cable (1.5891) is continuing to trade sideways within its uptrend. With significant Support at 1.5830 a further rise towards 1.60+ is looking likely in the coming days. Aussie (0.9832) is continuing to trade strong. With Support at 0.9750, it might target parity in the coming days/weeks.
The Asian currencies are retaining their strength. The Korean-Won is trading near 1116 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.3066. Dollar-Rupee has closed lower at 44.1950/2050 yesterday and might test 44.00. Resistance is seen in 44.40-50 region.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields and 10Y yields were down 3 bps and 2 bps to quote at 0.35% and 2.38% respectively.
12:30 GMT Sep US NFP
...Expected 3K...Previous -54K
12:00 GMT Sep CA Labour Force
...Expected 11.3K...Previous 35.8K
Sep Australia Labour Force
...Actual 49.5K...Previous 31.6K
...Actual 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
E-15 ECB Announcement
...Actual 1.00%...Previous 1.00
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