Wednesday April 13, 2005 - 10:06:39 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 13/4/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil closed around $51.40 yesterday, slipping over $2 and proving right the bearish signals from its indicators on a daily-basis. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.510, bouncing back up after re-testing the strong support of the 10.350 area.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2940 level. Yesterday session was a clear example of how the markets can be driven in one direction or another and have always a reason to justify the move. After the release of the all-time trade deficit record in the US, the USD surged, on comments saying that the focus was on interest rates, and the possible rate hike in next FOMC meetings. But, to everyone’s surprise, FOMC minutes later in the session caused a USD sell-off across the board. The reason? The fact that the federal reserve may not be raising interest rates by 50bp! Well, that is pretty much in line with what financial markets are in nature: a place where everything is what it is and not what it looked to be. But hey! That’s why technical analysis was created. It was a way to skip all that noise coming from the economic environment. Despite fundamentals have to be taken always seriously, they can’t rule the day-to-day trading when what we do is to look charts. When we look to the charts, we have to take into account price formations, and that is a valuable analysis instrument at the moment. From that point of view, the EUR hasn’t even break the 20-day simple moving average, therefore more selling pressure can’t be ruled out, despite indicators are not supporting a bearish view at the moment.
Moving averages overview: EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2791. Pair has a bearish cross by the shorter moving averages.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral – no signal (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8940 level. Its price action yesterday showed more strength than EUR. It dipped down with news, but the move back up put the pair at the highs for the session, but still below the 50-day moving average, which is acting as a good resistance for the pair right now. Not much more to add to the pair now.
Moving averages overview: GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8601. Pair has a bearish cross now from the short moving averages.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral – no signal (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Negative.
Usd/Chf: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1960 level. Pair is being supported by the 20-day moving average now, and despite being rejected once again by the 200-day simple moving average, its overall picture is bullish, and is acting once again as the leader for the next USD move. The momentum remains bullish and further gains are to be expected in coming sessions. However, a clear break of the 200-day simple moving average would be desirable. The 20-day moving average is only 100 pips away of the 200-day today, so we are near to see a very bullish signal for the greenback, should it be confirmed. Interesting to note the fact taht in dicators, at the moment, are not supporting the bullish momentum.
Moving averages overview: USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2056. Pair has confirmed a bullish moving averages cross.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): USD Neutral - no signal – (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative.
Eur/Gbp: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6835 level. The bearish cross and the fact that the price action is below the 200-day moving average led the pair to break down again the strong 0.6850 support, and if it is not quickly regained, its downside momentum will accelerate.
Moving averages overview: Pair has its 200-day moving average today at 0.6873. Pair has a bearish cross now from the short moving averages.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1: Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2: Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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