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Friday October 8, 2010 - 10:08:09 GMT
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European Market Update: US Non-farm payroll data to set the tone (TTN)

European Market Update: US Non-farm payroll data to set the tone

***Economic Data***
- (SZ) Swiss Sept Unemployment Rate: 3.6%e v 3.6% prior; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.7%e v 3.8% prior
- (FI) Finland July GDP Indicator: 4.6% v 5.5% prior
- (FI) Finland Aug Industrial Production M/M: 2.7% v -3.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.3% v 9.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Aug Preliminary Trade Balance: -€5M v -€79M prior
- (GE) Germany Aug Current Account: €4.6B v €7.0Be; Trade balance: €9.0B v €11.3Be; Exports M/M: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Imports M/M: 0.9% v 0.4%e
- (FR) France Aug Central Gov't Balance: -€122.1B v -€93.1B prior
- (CZ) Czech Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.5%e
- (TU) Turkey Aug Industrial Production WDA M/M: % v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 8.9% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 11.0% v 8.2%e
- (NV) Netherlands Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 7.0% v 6.7% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 15.0% v 12.1% prior
- (SW) Sweden Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.4% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: 9.7% v 17.1%e prior
- (SW) Sweden Aug Industrial Orders M/M: -5.8% v 5.6% prior; Y/Y: 13.1% v 12.3% prior
- (UK) Sept PPI Input M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 9.5% v 8.6%e
- (UK) Sept PPI Output M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.3%e
- (UK) Sept PPI Output Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.3%e


Fixed income:
- (SA) South Africa Index-Linked Bon Auction Results
- Sold ZAR320M I/L R202 Bonds, Avg yield 2.630%
- Sold ZAR135M I/L R211 Bonds, Avg yield 2.500%

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **

Notes/Observations:
- Markets consolidating recent moves ahead of key US employment data
- China equity markets reopen after Golden week holiday; Shanghai Composite around 3%
- G7 and IMF weekend meeting in Washington DC with FX likely to be a key topic

Equities:
- As of 5:30 am Euro Stoxx -0.4% at 2,776; FTSE100 was -0.5t at 5,636; CAC40 -0.5% at 3,752; DAX -0.2% at 6,261

- European shares continue to drift lower ahead of US payrolls which could indicate whether more QE will be introduced. Energy shares weighed on the markets but miners were up today following strong Alcoa's earnings from yesterday's
US session. The weak dollar is also helping the metal prices.
- In M&A news Sanofi-Aventis [SAN.FR] opened down about 0.7% after press reports that the CEO offered a price in the range of $69-80 during a private meeting with Genzyme CEO. Sanofi denied that the company ever had a price range and will continue with its hostile bid of $69/shr.
-
UK travel name Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] opened up by 4% after company announced that it would merge high street travel units with The Co-operative Group which is expected to increase its travel products from 69% to 80%.
- Swiss pharma Actelion [ACT.SZ] continuing yesterday's rally after several reports that the company had received approaches from big pharma names. Shares rose 9.5%.
- TomTom [TOM2.NV] also opened higher by 2.8% following the partnership with Autonavi which would expose company to the Chinese market.

Speakers:
ECB's Wellink commented in a press interview that the
US should not only look at EUR/USD exchange rate and he added that Germany has profited from strong yen trend. The central banker added that the US should bring its deficits in order and stated that it was too early to label the environment as "currency wars"
-
Australia officials continue to comment on the currency situation. The Fin Min stated that the AUD currency strength reflected the country's economic performance. He added that the high value underscored the investor confidence. Australia Energy Min added that a strong aussy currency did benefit the capex for the resource sector but did add that such appreciation could have a negative impact on the manufacturing and tourist sectors of the economy
- Japan Vice Fin Min Igarashi commented that international cooperation was needed to bring fx rates into the appropriate range. The
US should show certain tolerance on currency issues. The official noted that Japan intervention was different in nature from China's situation but conceded that Japan fx interventions had limited impact on the fx market.
-
Japan Fin Min Noda reiterated the view that excessive yen moves were not good for the economy
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) Hildebrand commented that the global economy continued to recover but remained fragile. He added that
Switzerland should be a conservative financial centre with less investment banking and prop trading emphasis.
-
Thailand PM Abhisit: Fin Min to propose baht currency measures next week during cabinet meeting
- Greece 2010 YTD Cash deficit: €18.5B v €25.6B y/y - Central Bank


Currencies:
The USD continued its modest correction after testing its respective lows again the Major pairs on Thursday. There was some Supportive dollar interest ahead of the key payroll report out later today. EUR/USD probing the 1.39 handle after its test of 1.40 on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair continues to linger above the 'pivotal' 82.00 area with the market trying to see if the BOJ again performs some solo intervention action. Ahead of the weekend G7 and IMF meeting the CNY trading was around 6.6810 as pressure on
China continues to simmer to have the CNY reflect fundamentals.

Geopolitical/ In the papers:
- In the Irish Independent, citing the Canadian rating agency DBRS, about 90% of Anglo Irish Banks liabilities are due to mature in the next 12 months. Close to €67 billion of its funding is due to mature over the next year. The liabilities include inter-bank deposits, customer deposits, bonds and subordinated debt.
- The National Housing Federation warned that planned cuts to housing benefits could leave more than 250,000 people at risk of being homeless. In the Guardian article, the government proposed cutting the benefits so that housing allowances would be linked to the bottom third of private sector rents against the present system, which pegs allowances to the bottom half of private rents.
-
Greece's Finance Minister Papaconstantinou commented on the government's plan to sell some of its private assets. Under the plan Greece is looking to raise €3 billion in over three years. Sales would include stakes in assets including ports, airports roads and real estate. On the area of austerity cuts, the Finance Minister said Greece is on track to meet its year-end austerity targets, but said that lagging revenues are still a concern. He did add that Greece hopes it will not need to extend its bailout agreement with the IMF and EU.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (RU) Russia Aug Trade balance: $9.5Be v $11.0B prior
- (PO) Portugal Aug Trade Balance: € v -€1.2B prior
- 7:00 (CA) Net Change in Employment: 10.0Ke v 35.8K prior; Unemployment Rate: 8.0%e v 8.1% prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior
- 8:00 (CL) Chile Sept CPI M/M: 0.5%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.6% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: 0.6%e v -0.1% prior
- 8:15 (CA) Canada Sept Housing Starts: 179.0Ke v 183.3K prior
- 8:30 (US) Sept Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: -5Ke v -54K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: 75Ke v 67K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +2Ke v -27K prior
- 8:30 (US) Sept Unemployment Rate: 9.7%e v 9.6% prior

- 8:30 (US) Sept Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.2e v 34.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Wholesale Inventories: 0.5%e v 1.3% prior
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Q3 Senior Loan Officer Survey: No est v -24.8 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: No est v 25 prior
- 14:25 Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Regulation on Panel in Washington
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
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13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
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13:30 US- GDP
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