Friday October 8, 2010 - 12:25:57 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 08-Oct-2010 - 1224 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD/CHF @ 0.9676/79...May fall
R: 0.9700 / 0.0.9760 / 0.9800
S: 0.9550 / 0.9500 / 0.9435
Dollar-Swiss has not moved much since morning and we continue to hold our morning view on the pair today.
Dollar-Swiss touched low of 0.9554 in the European session yesterday, followed by an upmove touching a high of 0.9701 in the US session yesterday. We were trailed out of our short at 0.9675 with a 10 pip profit. The pair is currently trading below 0.9700 and may trade sideways ahead of the crucial data release later today.
Overall, we are bearish on the pair with some Support near the 0.9550-00 region which may be seen today.
GBP/USD @ 1.5849/52... Eyes on NFP.
Since morning cable has been in a range of 1.5825-1.5880, movements are expected post NFP. Our overall view remains same as morning:
"As long as 1.58 handle holds, trend remains firm and a retest of yesterdays high above 1.60 possible. The NFP numbers shall dictate In fact trend in the second half of day from US. Expectation is for a reduction in jobs in US after a weak ADP employment report, which came out yesterday."
AUD/USD @ 0.9742/45...Important Support at 0.9720-00
R: 0.9773 / 0.9830 / 0.9880-900
S: 0.9720-00 / 0.9650 / 0.9550
Aussie has fallen steeply in the European session today. The pair is currently trading below the Channel Resistance at 0.9773, and we need to see of it closes above or below 0.9773 today. Please note that a close below 0.9773 will imply a falls break (above the Channel Resistance at 0.9750, yesterday) and a close below 0.9720 may be very bearish for the coming days. Please note that we have 2 important events over the next couple of days which may have a significant impact on the movement next week: (a) the UN economic data releases later today and (b) the G7 meet on the currency market in the weekend.
We would like to sell on a break below 0.9720, with tight stop, however, we would want to stay out of the market if the pair continues to trade above 0.9720.
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